Towards ecological integration into socio-technical risk assessment: A multidisciplinary system-theoretic approach

The marine risk picture in the high north is challenging to assess due to increasing levels of human activity, as well as environmental and ecological changes. This requires methods for holistic risk assessment, to facilitate efficient risk mitigation and emergency preparedness. Risk analysis, however, often takes a disciplinary approach, rarely combining socio-technical or operational risk analyses with thorough analyses of ecology or vice versa. One risk analysis method that may achieve this is the Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), as it may be applied to complex socio-technological systems wider in scope than the more focussed engineering domain in which it was developed. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to investigate and propose an approach that considers potential negative impacts on ecosystems from human activities alongside socio-technical risks, to facilitate improved system safety and ecological sustainability. We propose novel extensions to the conventional STPA, called “eco-STPA”, which enhance the identification of hazards related to the ecosystem and include ecological “controls” on the system more directly, enabling holistic assessments of risk. We present an illustrative case study applied to the cruise industry in the Arctic (Barents Sea) to highlight the benefits, challenges, and special considerations required when incorporating ecological perspectives. The holistic approach may be useful for operators and regulators, providing a better understanding of how human activities impact and interact with vulnerable areas such as marine ecosystems, to ensure safer future operations for both humans and the marine environment.