Environmental, health and economic impact assessment of clean heating renovation: Evidence from 88 cities in northern China

To address environmental issues related to heating, the Chinese government launched the “Clean Heating Plan in the Northern Region” as a national energy transition strategy, renovating heating systems for over 30 million households in 88 cities. With the completion of five implementation phases by March 2024, this study presents an evaluation framework to comprehensively assess the environmental, health, and economic impacts of the policy. On-site surveys were conducted annually, monitoring the advancements of clean heating renovations in over 100,000 households across these cities. Combined with air pollution metrics, meteorological data, and city statistical records, a Difference-in-Differences (DID) model with continuous treatment was used to evaluate the environmental benefits associated with the incremental adoption of clean heating in each city. Subsequently, a health impact assessment and cost-benefit analysis were conducted to analyze changes in all-cause mortality and their associated economic benefits. Results indicated an average PM_2.5 reduction of 10.31 μg/m³ (95 % CI: [9.25, 11.37]) per heating season and an annual reduction of 1573 in all-cause mortality (95 % CI: [630, 2518]). The economic benefits of these improvements were estimated at 717.1 billion CNY, contributing to an average benefit-cost ratio of 1.48. The proposed evaluation framework serves as a structured method for evaluating the environmental, health, and economic impacts of the energy policy and provides robust evidence to support implementing similar initiatives.