Lightning Prediction in the Tehran Region Using the WRF Model With Multiple Physical Parameterizations and an Ensemble Approach

This study aims to predict the lightning (thunderstorm) potential in the Tehran region using data from meteorological synoptic stations and the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN). We employed the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate lightning, focusing on the innermost domain, which spans between 34.5 and 36.5°N, and between 49.5 and 53.25°E. The initial and boundary conditions for the WRF model were derived from the Global Forecast System data set, with a spatial resolution of 0.5°. We analyzed 10 significant lightning events from 2015 to 2022, primarily focusing on the spring season. Lightning simulations were conducted using the WRF model with seven different physical schemes and the Lightning Potential Index. The results indicate that the WRF model, particularly when utilizing the Morrison, WDM6, and NSSL-2 schemes, effectively simulates lightning regions. However, some underestimation was observed, notably in the southwestern portion of the study area. Comparisons with ENTLN data showed that configurations 1 and 2, using WSM6 and Goddard schemes, achieved the highest Probability of Detection, Critical Success Index, and higher Success Rates for actual lightning events. The uncertainty in lightning simulation and the model's sensitivity to physical parameterization highlight the importance of using an ensemble approach in the WRF model. By averaging outputs from different configurations in the ensemble, a more optimal result, closer to observed data, can be achieved. Based on these findings, we recommend the ensemble method as the most reliable approach for more accurate lightning simulations in future studies.