通过国家和城市层面的数据分析评估中国房地产繁荣对心理健康的影响。

Yige Xiao, Xin Liu, Lijie Ren, Shufang Lai
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究考察了房地产繁荣时期房价波动对心理健康的净社会影响。通过分析2008年至2019年中国31个省份的数据,我们发现房价回报率与精神科门诊就诊率之间存在显著的正相关关系,这表明房价上涨会降低心理健康水平。在控制了本地公司的股票回报后,结果依然强劲。安慰剂试验表明,心理健康影响主要是由患者所在社区的房价变化驱动的。此外,我们使用深圳一家医院的市级数据(深圳房价在2015年1月至2019年4月期间涨幅最大),记录了房价飙升对心理健康恶化的两周滞后效应,其显现时间略长于股市波动的负面影响。总的来说,我们的研究结果表明,房地产繁荣恶化了心理健康,增加了医疗保健系统的社会负担。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessing the mental health impact of China's housing boom through national and city-level data analysis.

This study examines the net societal impact of housing price fluctuations on mental health during a housing boom. Analyzing data from 31 Chinese provinces between 2008 and 2019, we identify a significant positive relationship between housing price returns and the rate of psychiatric outpatient visits, suggesting that rising house prices decrease mental health. The results remain robust after controlling for local firms' stock returns. Placebo tests show that mental health impacts are primarily driven by housing price changes in the patients' local neighborhoods. Moreover, using City-level data from a hospital in Shenzhen (where housing prices showed the sharpest rise between January 2015 and April 2019), we document a two-week lagged effect of housing price surges on mental health Deterioration, which takes slightly longer to manifest than the negative effect of stock market fluctuations. Overall, our findings suggest that housing booms deteriorate mental health and increase the societal burden on healthcare systems.

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