{"title":"自然和人为因素对中国季节性河流水质趋势的影响","authors":"Haoran Zhang, Huihang Sun, Jiarong Li, Yuelei Li, Luyu Zhang, Ruikun Zhao, Xiangang Hu, Nanqi Ren, Yu Tian","doi":"10.1038/s41545-025-00481-3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change and human activities have redefined seasonal river water quality patterns, yet their respective impacts remain unclear. Here, we propose a novel trend-based metric, the T-NM index, to isolate asymmetric human amplification and suppression effects across 195 natural and 1540 managed watersheds in China (2006–2020). Consistent trends in 52–89% of watersheds suggest climatic dominance, while anthropogenic drivers intensified or attenuated trends by 22–158% and 14–56%, especially in summer. Four independent multivariable models simulated seasonal COD and DO concentrations. Attribution analysis showed that seasonal factors explained 47.08% of the variation, while rainfall (25.37%) and slope (17.40%) accounted for COD and DO changes in natural watersheds; in contrast, Shannon Diversity Index (11.58%) and Largest Patch Index (10.66%) dominated in managed watersheds. This study establishes a generalizable framework for distinguishing natural and anthropogenic influences, offering key insights for adaptive water quality management under future climatic and socio-economic transitions.</p>","PeriodicalId":19375,"journal":{"name":"npj Clean Water","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":11.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Natural and anthropogenic imprints on seasonal river water quality trends across China\",\"authors\":\"Haoran Zhang, Huihang Sun, Jiarong Li, Yuelei Li, Luyu Zhang, Ruikun Zhao, Xiangang Hu, Nanqi Ren, Yu Tian\",\"doi\":\"10.1038/s41545-025-00481-3\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Climate change and human activities have redefined seasonal river water quality patterns, yet their respective impacts remain unclear. Here, we propose a novel trend-based metric, the T-NM index, to isolate asymmetric human amplification and suppression effects across 195 natural and 1540 managed watersheds in China (2006–2020). Consistent trends in 52–89% of watersheds suggest climatic dominance, while anthropogenic drivers intensified or attenuated trends by 22–158% and 14–56%, especially in summer. Four independent multivariable models simulated seasonal COD and DO concentrations. Attribution analysis showed that seasonal factors explained 47.08% of the variation, while rainfall (25.37%) and slope (17.40%) accounted for COD and DO changes in natural watersheds; in contrast, Shannon Diversity Index (11.58%) and Largest Patch Index (10.66%) dominated in managed watersheds. This study establishes a generalizable framework for distinguishing natural and anthropogenic influences, offering key insights for adaptive water quality management under future climatic and socio-economic transitions.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19375,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"npj Clean Water\",\"volume\":\"9 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":11.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-06-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"npj Clean Water\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41545-025-00481-3\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"npj Clean Water","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41545-025-00481-3","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Natural and anthropogenic imprints on seasonal river water quality trends across China
Climate change and human activities have redefined seasonal river water quality patterns, yet their respective impacts remain unclear. Here, we propose a novel trend-based metric, the T-NM index, to isolate asymmetric human amplification and suppression effects across 195 natural and 1540 managed watersheds in China (2006–2020). Consistent trends in 52–89% of watersheds suggest climatic dominance, while anthropogenic drivers intensified or attenuated trends by 22–158% and 14–56%, especially in summer. Four independent multivariable models simulated seasonal COD and DO concentrations. Attribution analysis showed that seasonal factors explained 47.08% of the variation, while rainfall (25.37%) and slope (17.40%) accounted for COD and DO changes in natural watersheds; in contrast, Shannon Diversity Index (11.58%) and Largest Patch Index (10.66%) dominated in managed watersheds. This study establishes a generalizable framework for distinguishing natural and anthropogenic influences, offering key insights for adaptive water quality management under future climatic and socio-economic transitions.
npj Clean WaterEnvironmental Science-Water Science and Technology
CiteScore
15.30
自引率
2.60%
发文量
61
审稿时长
5 weeks
期刊介绍:
npj Clean Water publishes high-quality papers that report cutting-edge science, technology, applications, policies, and societal issues contributing to a more sustainable supply of clean water. The journal's publications may also support and accelerate the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 6, which focuses on clean water and sanitation.