Mortality trends from respiratory disease in Kazakhstan: A 2011-2021 analysis.

Background: Respiratory diseases rank second in global morbidity and mortality. By 2020, mortality from these conditions surged by 39.8% due to increased incidence and COVID-19-related deaths.

Objectives: This study aimed to identify preventable mortality and total mortality from respiratory diseases in Kazakhstan from 2011 to 2021.

Design and methods: Data from the National Statistics Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan were analyzed. Preventable mortality rates were calculated across 5-year age groups (i.e. 0, 1-4, 5-9, . . ., 74+) and by gender using respiratory disease mortality data from 2011 to 2021. In addition, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the age group of 0-74 years and gender factors were calculated to ensure statistical reliability.

Results: Preventable mortality levels have more than doubled by 2021, reaching 156.19 per 100,000 population, with a significant increase in 2020. Preventable mortality among men was consistently three or more times higher than among women. The average annual percentage change increased by 7.5% (95% CI: 3.1; 12.2), from 2011 to 2021, where the rate was higher among women 9.2% (95% CI: 4.8; 13.9), compared to men (6.6% [95% CI: 0.9; 12.7]). Our findings strongly indicate that mortality rates will continue to rise by 2026, underscoring the urgent need for the scientific community and governments to collaborate in preventing further escalations of respiratory diseases.

Conclusions: The study seeks to project the future prognosis of respiratory disease-related mortality and to highlight the need for targeted health strategies to reduce avoidable deaths through targeted health strategies with cooperative measures.