特定教育死亡率趋势对英格兰和威尔士预期寿命停滞的贡献。

IF 5.9 1区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
European Journal of Epidemiology Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-02 DOI:10.1007/s10654-025-01251-8
Jesús-Daniel Zazueta-Borboa, Leo van Wissen, Alison Sizer, Fanny Janssen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

自2011年以来,英格兰和威尔士(E&W)出生时预期寿命的增长一直停滞不前。先前的研究假设停滞与紧缩措施的增加和社会经济不平等的扩大有关。我们正式评估了特定教育的死亡率趋势和日益加剧的教育不平等对停滞的贡献。我们使用了来自国家统计局纵向研究的性别、受教育程度(低、中、高)和年龄(30岁以上)的个体相关死亡率数据。我们按性别比较了2011-2017年全国和特定教育人群30岁(e30)剩余预期寿命的观察结果与预期(=预计)增长。我们使用逐步分解的方法评估了教育特定死亡率的贡献,并使用假设不平等不变的情景分析来评估教育不平等加剧的贡献。2011-2017年E&W的e30年增长率(男性)和e30年增长率(女性)分别比预期低1.32年和1.14年,年均增长率分别为2.3个月和1.9个月。在所有受教育群体中,30岁年龄段的增长都停滞不前,在2011年之后,中等教育程度的男性和低教育程度的女性的30岁年龄段都出现了下降。受教育程度低的男性(41.4%)、受教育程度中等的男性(53.5%)和受教育程度低的女性(86.1%)的死亡率趋势是造成按性别区分的停滞的主要原因。2011年至2017年期间观察到的教育不平等的增加约占全国经济停滞的27%。不断扩大的教育不平等,特别是自2011年以来中等教育程度的男性和低教育程度的女性所观察到的不利的死亡率趋势,在很大程度上导致了英格兰和威尔士自2011年以来的30年代停滞。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

The contribution of education-specific mortality trends to the life expectancy stagnation in England & Wales.

The contribution of education-specific mortality trends to the life expectancy stagnation in England & Wales.

The contribution of education-specific mortality trends to the life expectancy stagnation in England & Wales.

The increase in life expectancy at birth (e0) has stagnated since 2011 in England & Wales (E&W). Prior research hypothesized that the stagnation is related to increasing austerity measures and widening socio-economic inequalities. We formally assessed the contribution of education-specific mortality trends and increasing educational inequalities to the stagnation. We used individually-linked mortality data by sex, educational attainment (low, middle, high), and age (30+) from the ONS Longitudinal Study. We compared, by sex, the observed with the expected (= projected) increase in remaining life expectancy at age 30 (e30) in 2011-2017 for the national and education-specific populations. We assessed the education-specific mortality contributions using stepwise decomposition, and the contribution of increasing educational inequalities using a scenario analysis that assumes constant inequalities. In E&W in 2011-2017, e30 increased by 1.32 years (males) and 1.14 years (females) less than expected, which translates into 2.3 and 1.9 months annually. Stagnation of the increase in e30 occurred across all educational groups, with declines in e30 after 2011 for middle-educated males and low-educated females. Mortality trends among low-educated males (41.4%), middle-educated males (53.5%), and low-educated females (86.1%) contributed the most to the sex-specific stagnation. The observed increases in educational inequalities between 2011 and 2017 contributed approximately 27% to the national e30 stagnation.Widening educational inequalities, and particularly the unfavourable mortality trends observed for middle educated males and low educated females since 2011, contributed substantially to the e30 stagnation since 2011 in England & Wales.

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来源期刊
European Journal of Epidemiology
European Journal of Epidemiology 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
CiteScore
21.40
自引率
1.50%
发文量
109
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: The European Journal of Epidemiology, established in 1985, is a peer-reviewed publication that provides a platform for discussions on epidemiology in its broadest sense. It covers various aspects of epidemiologic research and statistical methods. The journal facilitates communication between researchers, educators, and practitioners in epidemiology, including those in clinical and community medicine. Contributions from diverse fields such as public health, preventive medicine, clinical medicine, health economics, and computational biology and data science, in relation to health and disease, are encouraged. While accepting submissions from all over the world, the journal particularly emphasizes European topics relevant to epidemiology. The published articles consist of empirical research findings, developments in methodology, and opinion pieces.
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