中国的房价遵循齐夫定律。

IF 2.6 3区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
PLoS ONE Pub Date : 2025-05-30 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0324239
Yalin He, Bailin Zheng, Yue Kai
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究通过分析2015年至2023年中国200个城市的平均房价,验证了中国的房价遵循Zipf定律。Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS)检验进一步支持了这一结论。此外,该研究探讨了不同城市的房价趋势,并使用排名时钟来揭示价格波动,这是齐夫定律没有捕捉到的。使用9年的房价时间序列数据,ARIMA和ConvLSTM模型生成短期预测。利用各种指标对预测结果进行评价,预测价格的KS检验更符合Zipf定律。本文还构建了动态房价模型,为理解和预测房价走势提供了一个新的视角。本文的研究结果可以对房地产市场有所启示。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Housing prices in China follow Zipf's law.

Housing prices in China follow Zipf's law.

Housing prices in China follow Zipf's law.

Housing prices in China follow Zipf's law.

This study verifies that housing prices in China follow Zipf's law by analyzing the average housing prices in 200 Chinese cities between 2015 and 2023. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test further supports this conclusion. Furthermore, the study explores housing price trends in different city tiers and uses rank clocks to reveal price fluctuations, which is not captured by the Zipf's law. Using nine-year housing price time series data, the ARIMA and ConvLSTM models generate short-term forecasts. The forecasting results are evaluated using various indicators, and KS tests on the predicted prices show a better conformity to Zipf's law. This paper also builds a dynamic housing price model, offering a new perspective to understand and predict housing price trends. The results of this paper can shed light on the real estate market.

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来源期刊
PLoS ONE
PLoS ONE 生物-生物学
CiteScore
6.20
自引率
5.40%
发文量
14242
审稿时长
3.7 months
期刊介绍: PLOS ONE is an international, peer-reviewed, open-access, online publication. PLOS ONE welcomes reports on primary research from any scientific discipline. It provides: * Open-access—freely accessible online, authors retain copyright * Fast publication times * Peer review by expert, practicing researchers * Post-publication tools to indicate quality and impact * Community-based dialogue on articles * Worldwide media coverage
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