{"title":"中国的房价遵循齐夫定律。","authors":"Yalin He, Bailin Zheng, Yue Kai","doi":"10.1371/journal.pone.0324239","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study verifies that housing prices in China follow Zipf's law by analyzing the average housing prices in 200 Chinese cities between 2015 and 2023. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test further supports this conclusion. Furthermore, the study explores housing price trends in different city tiers and uses rank clocks to reveal price fluctuations, which is not captured by the Zipf's law. Using nine-year housing price time series data, the ARIMA and ConvLSTM models generate short-term forecasts. The forecasting results are evaluated using various indicators, and KS tests on the predicted prices show a better conformity to Zipf's law. This paper also builds a dynamic housing price model, offering a new perspective to understand and predict housing price trends. The results of this paper can shed light on the real estate market.</p>","PeriodicalId":20189,"journal":{"name":"PLoS ONE","volume":"20 5","pages":"e0324239"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12124540/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Housing prices in China follow Zipf's law.\",\"authors\":\"Yalin He, Bailin Zheng, Yue Kai\",\"doi\":\"10.1371/journal.pone.0324239\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>This study verifies that housing prices in China follow Zipf's law by analyzing the average housing prices in 200 Chinese cities between 2015 and 2023. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test further supports this conclusion. Furthermore, the study explores housing price trends in different city tiers and uses rank clocks to reveal price fluctuations, which is not captured by the Zipf's law. Using nine-year housing price time series data, the ARIMA and ConvLSTM models generate short-term forecasts. The forecasting results are evaluated using various indicators, and KS tests on the predicted prices show a better conformity to Zipf's law. This paper also builds a dynamic housing price model, offering a new perspective to understand and predict housing price trends. The results of this paper can shed light on the real estate market.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":20189,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"PLoS ONE\",\"volume\":\"20 5\",\"pages\":\"e0324239\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12124540/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"PLoS ONE\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"103\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0324239\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"综合性期刊\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/1/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"PLoS ONE","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0324239","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
This study verifies that housing prices in China follow Zipf's law by analyzing the average housing prices in 200 Chinese cities between 2015 and 2023. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test further supports this conclusion. Furthermore, the study explores housing price trends in different city tiers and uses rank clocks to reveal price fluctuations, which is not captured by the Zipf's law. Using nine-year housing price time series data, the ARIMA and ConvLSTM models generate short-term forecasts. The forecasting results are evaluated using various indicators, and KS tests on the predicted prices show a better conformity to Zipf's law. This paper also builds a dynamic housing price model, offering a new perspective to understand and predict housing price trends. The results of this paper can shed light on the real estate market.
期刊介绍:
PLOS ONE is an international, peer-reviewed, open-access, online publication. PLOS ONE welcomes reports on primary research from any scientific discipline. It provides:
* Open-access—freely accessible online, authors retain copyright
* Fast publication times
* Peer review by expert, practicing researchers
* Post-publication tools to indicate quality and impact
* Community-based dialogue on articles
* Worldwide media coverage