Global time-trend analysis and projections of disease burden for neuroblastic tumors: a worldwide study from 1990 to 2021.

Background: Neuroblastoma and other peripheral nerve cell tumors (NB-PNT) are the most common extracranial solid tumors in children. This study aimed to describe the global burden of NB-PNT across different age groups and genders, including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in various countries and regions. Additionally, we analyzed changes in the disease burden over the past three decades and predicted future trends up to 2036.

Methods: Using open data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database (1990-2021), we provided a dynamic description of the disease burden of NB-PNT patients across different age and gender groups on a global scale. Joinpoint analysis was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to quantify trends in the burden of NB-PNT. Meanwhile, the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict the changes in disease burden up to 2036.

Results: From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of NB-PNT increased significantly, with global prevalence rising from 41,456 to 56,326 cases. Gender and age disparities were evident, with male patients and patients aged 6-11 months exhibiting higher disease burden. Regional variations were observed, with higher disease burdens in regions with a higher sociodemographic index (SDI), although low-SDI regions showed a consistent upward trend. Overall, the prevalence of NB-PNT increased year by year (overall AAPC = 0.64% [0.56 - 0.72%]), with a slight decline in age-standardized mortality rates observed in 2019 (APC_{2019 - 2021} = -2.02%). Projections indicate a slight decline in both incidence and mortality rates by 2036, with a more pronounced reduction in females.

Conclusions: A higher burden of NB-PNT was evident among male patients and infants. The disease burden in low-SDI regions has increased in recent years, while a decline was observed in high-SDI regions. Over the past 30 years, the burden rose overall, although a decline in incidence was observed in 2019. Projections indicate a slight decrease in global incidence and mortality rates through 2036.