降雨与它有什么关系?景观前置条件对霍克斯伯里-尼皮恩河谷洪水淹没程度的一级影响

IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Wendy Sharples, Jiawei Hou, Katayoon Bahramian, Christopher Pickett-Heaps, Fitsum Woldesmekel, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Elisabetta Carrara
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引用次数: 0

摘要

霍克斯伯里-尼皮恩山谷有着悠久的危险洪水历史,可以追溯到18世纪有记录以来。它是澳大利亚东部地区最大的沿海盆地之一,支持着大量的人口、农业和工业,同时也是一项重要的环境资产。2020年至2022年期间,该山谷发生了多次具有不同社会经济影响的洪水事件,其中罕见的三重La Niña事件是自1900年以来的第三次。本研究以该地区4次重大洪涝灾害为研究对象,通过考察洪涝灾害发生前的气候驱动因素和先决条件、洪涝灾害期间的河流流量以及灾害足迹本身,探讨了影响变化的原因。研究发现,前因景观条件对灾害足迹的大小和影响具有一级效应。这些结果表明,在当前景观干旱趋势下,极端降雨事件的增加不会影响中等洪水的洪水灾害足迹。因此,未来洪水对该地区的影响并不一定会加重。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
What Has Rainfall Got to Do With It? Landscape Antecedent Conditions Have a First Order Effect on Flood Inundation Extent in the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley

The Hawkesbury-Nepean valley has a long history of hazardous flooding dating back to when records began, in the 18th century. It is one of the largest coastal basins in the eastern Australian region and supports a large population, agriculture, and industry, as well as being an important environmental asset. Multiple flooding events with differing socioeconomic impacts occurred in the valley between 2020 and 2022, brought about by a rare triple La Niña event—only the third since 1900. In this study, upon examination of the four significant floods in the area, the reasons for the variation in impacts are explored by investigating the climate drivers and antecedent conditions preceding these events, the streamflow during the events, and the hazard footprints themselves. It was found that antecedent landscape conditions exerted a first-order effect on the hazard footprint's size and thus impact. These results imply that with the current landscape drying trends and projected increase in landscape dryness for this region, the projected increase in extreme rainfall events will not affect the flood hazard footprint of medium-sized floods. Thus, impacts from flooding will not necessarily increase in severity in this region in the future.

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来源期刊
Journal of Flood Risk Management
Journal of Flood Risk Management ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-WATER RESOURCES
CiteScore
8.40
自引率
7.30%
发文量
93
审稿时长
12 months
期刊介绍: Journal of Flood Risk Management provides an international platform for knowledge sharing in all areas related to flood risk. Its explicit aim is to disseminate ideas across the range of disciplines where flood related research is carried out and it provides content ranging from leading edge academic papers to applied content with the practitioner in mind. Readers and authors come from a wide background and include hydrologists, meteorologists, geographers, geomorphologists, conservationists, civil engineers, social scientists, policy makers, insurers and practitioners. They share an interest in managing the complex interactions between the many skills and disciplines that underpin the management of flood risk across the world.
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