Temporal trends in prevalence of violence in Wales: analysis of a national victimisation survey

Objectives

Monitoring violence trends and distribution is key for a public health approach to violence prevention. However, national survey estimates for Wales have not been disaggregated from those for England and Wales combined. We therefore aim to examine whether the trends in violence in Wales differ from trends in England.

Study design

Descriptive analysis of repeated cross-sectional data.

Methods

Using data from the Crime Survey for England and Wales, a nationally representative household victimisation survey, for years 2002–2020, we compare trends in prevalence of violence victimisation between Wales and England, for all adults and by gender.

Results

Country-disaggregated data shows that the prevalence of violence was generally lower in Wales than in England for the first decade of the century. Analyses by gender shows further disparities between countries. Males in Wales and England and females in England experienced a decline in violence victimisation between 2002 and 2015. However, no decline in violence was evident for females in Wales until after 2016.

Conclusions

Given differences in prevalence and trends in violence between Wales and England, relying on estimates based on the countries combined to inform strategic planning in Wales is problematic. Using Wales-specific estimates and trends in violence is therefore recommended.