干旱:气候变化下不同观点的批判性回顾

IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Abhinav Kumar , Mahesh Kothari , Pradeep Kumar Singh , Manjeet Singh , Ravi Kumar Sharma , Sanwal Singh Meena
{"title":"干旱:气候变化下不同观点的批判性回顾","authors":"Abhinav Kumar ,&nbsp;Mahesh Kothari ,&nbsp;Pradeep Kumar Singh ,&nbsp;Manjeet Singh ,&nbsp;Ravi Kumar Sharma ,&nbsp;Sanwal Singh Meena","doi":"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179741","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The phenomena of drought are intricate and multifaceted, impacted by various Physical and Biological mechanisms and processes. Because of this intricacy, it is very complex to explain cause and effect in a straightforward manner, which makes researching drought and climate change difficult. Here, we summarize significant recent developments in our knowledge of drought dynamics based on different perspectives including Precipitation, Evaporation, Soil Moisture, and Drought indices under changing climate. Forecasts from models suggest that precipitation is expected to rise in most terrestrial areas, except in subtropical regions where it is anticipated to decline due to increasing greenhouse gases. The frequency of light to moderate precipitation is projected to decrease over most regions of the world. Prognostic model outputs, as opposed to offline drought metrics, should ideally be used to evaluate variations in soil moisture wetness and dryness in the future and to interpret the results within the framework of the linked soil-vegetation–atmosphere system. It is important to prioritize the resilience of indices when temperature and other drought-triggering variables change frequently as they are based on different assumptions and behave differently to the same level of Global climatic Fluctuations. Creating drought indices in a warming climate without taking into account the factors that control the underlying conditions like climatic data accessibility, downscaling methods, potential evapotranspiration (PET) calculation, baseline period, and nonstationarity could lead to uncertainty. Additional obstacles to a trustworthy drought assessment under certain circumstances may include anthropogenic factors, climate data resolution, and non-stationary climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":422,"journal":{"name":"Science of the Total Environment","volume":"985 ","pages":"Article 179741"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Drought: A critical review of different perspectives under changing climate\",\"authors\":\"Abhinav Kumar ,&nbsp;Mahesh Kothari ,&nbsp;Pradeep Kumar Singh ,&nbsp;Manjeet Singh ,&nbsp;Ravi Kumar Sharma ,&nbsp;Sanwal Singh Meena\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179741\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>The phenomena of drought are intricate and multifaceted, impacted by various Physical and Biological mechanisms and processes. Because of this intricacy, it is very complex to explain cause and effect in a straightforward manner, which makes researching drought and climate change difficult. Here, we summarize significant recent developments in our knowledge of drought dynamics based on different perspectives including Precipitation, Evaporation, Soil Moisture, and Drought indices under changing climate. Forecasts from models suggest that precipitation is expected to rise in most terrestrial areas, except in subtropical regions where it is anticipated to decline due to increasing greenhouse gases. The frequency of light to moderate precipitation is projected to decrease over most regions of the world. Prognostic model outputs, as opposed to offline drought metrics, should ideally be used to evaluate variations in soil moisture wetness and dryness in the future and to interpret the results within the framework of the linked soil-vegetation–atmosphere system. It is important to prioritize the resilience of indices when temperature and other drought-triggering variables change frequently as they are based on different assumptions and behave differently to the same level of Global climatic Fluctuations. Creating drought indices in a warming climate without taking into account the factors that control the underlying conditions like climatic data accessibility, downscaling methods, potential evapotranspiration (PET) calculation, baseline period, and nonstationarity could lead to uncertainty. Additional obstacles to a trustworthy drought assessment under certain circumstances may include anthropogenic factors, climate data resolution, and non-stationary climate.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":422,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Science of the Total Environment\",\"volume\":\"985 \",\"pages\":\"Article 179741\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":8.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Science of the Total Environment\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969725013828\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Science of the Total Environment","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969725013828","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

干旱现象是复杂和多方面的,受到各种物理和生物机制和过程的影响。由于这种复杂性,用一种直接的方式解释因果关系是非常复杂的,这使得研究干旱和气候变化变得困难。在这里,我们基于不同的视角,包括降水、蒸发、土壤湿度和气候变化下的干旱指数,总结了我们在干旱动态方面的最新进展。模式预报表明,除亚热带地区外,大多数陆地地区的降水预计将增加,而亚热带地区由于温室气体增加,预计降水将减少。预计在世界大多数地区,轻度至中度降水的频率将减少。与离线干旱指标相反,理想情况下应该使用预测模型输出来评估未来土壤湿度和干燥度的变化,并在相关土壤-植被-大气系统的框架内解释结果。当温度和其他引发干旱的变量频繁变化时,必须优先考虑指数的复原力,因为它们基于不同的假设,对全球气候波动的同一水平的反应也不同。在气候变暖的情况下创建干旱指数,如果不考虑控制潜在条件的因素,如气候数据可及性、降尺度方法、潜在蒸散(PET)计算、基线期和非平稳性,可能会导致不确定性。在某些情况下进行可靠干旱评估的其他障碍可能包括人为因素、气候数据分辨率和非平稳气候。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Drought: A critical review of different perspectives under changing climate

Drought: A critical review of different perspectives under changing climate
The phenomena of drought are intricate and multifaceted, impacted by various Physical and Biological mechanisms and processes. Because of this intricacy, it is very complex to explain cause and effect in a straightforward manner, which makes researching drought and climate change difficult. Here, we summarize significant recent developments in our knowledge of drought dynamics based on different perspectives including Precipitation, Evaporation, Soil Moisture, and Drought indices under changing climate. Forecasts from models suggest that precipitation is expected to rise in most terrestrial areas, except in subtropical regions where it is anticipated to decline due to increasing greenhouse gases. The frequency of light to moderate precipitation is projected to decrease over most regions of the world. Prognostic model outputs, as opposed to offline drought metrics, should ideally be used to evaluate variations in soil moisture wetness and dryness in the future and to interpret the results within the framework of the linked soil-vegetation–atmosphere system. It is important to prioritize the resilience of indices when temperature and other drought-triggering variables change frequently as they are based on different assumptions and behave differently to the same level of Global climatic Fluctuations. Creating drought indices in a warming climate without taking into account the factors that control the underlying conditions like climatic data accessibility, downscaling methods, potential evapotranspiration (PET) calculation, baseline period, and nonstationarity could lead to uncertainty. Additional obstacles to a trustworthy drought assessment under certain circumstances may include anthropogenic factors, climate data resolution, and non-stationary climate.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Science of the Total Environment
Science of the Total Environment 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
17.60
自引率
10.20%
发文量
8726
审稿时长
2.4 months
期刊介绍: The Science of the Total Environment is an international journal dedicated to scientific research on the environment and its interaction with humanity. It covers a wide range of disciplines and seeks to publish innovative, hypothesis-driven, and impactful research that explores the entire environment, including the atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere. The journal's updated Aims & Scope emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary environmental research with broad impact. Priority is given to studies that advance fundamental understanding and explore the interconnectedness of multiple environmental spheres. Field studies are preferred, while laboratory experiments must demonstrate significant methodological advancements or mechanistic insights with direct relevance to the environment.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信