Where do regimes rally their supporters? The geographical distribution of pro-war mobilization in Russia 2022

While recent studies enhanced our understanding of when autocratic regimes engage in pro-government mobilization, we still know little about where exactly governments rally their supporters. This study addresses the spatial pattern of pro-government mobilization, focusing on the daily incidence and geographical distribution of pro-war rallies in Russia from February to April 2022. Building on existing research, we conceptualize pro-government mobilization as a strategic decision by autocracies, serving as a signal to citizens and dissidents while incurring costs. We extend this framework to include a spatial dimension, arguing that pro-government mobilization serves as a visual signal on the ground, strategically initiated in locations where governments want to quell unrest. Likewise, due to mobilization costs and the potential risk of backlash, pro-regime rallies are expected to be more prevalent in larger cities and in areas where security forces possess a higher capacity for swift reaction. Leveraging data at the day-municipality level, we identify the locations for mobilizing regime support. Cox models reveal that locations with a history of anti-war protest have a higher risk of subsequently hosting pro-war rallies. This effect is particularly pronounced in smaller locations. Moreover, larger cities and locations with the military stationed nearby exhibit a higher chance for pro-war rallies. These findings offer new insights into a regime’s mobilization strategy as a tool of authoritarian governance during contentious periods.