新可再生能源投资组合标准下可再生能源发电企业投资决策研究

IF 9.7 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Journal of Cleaner Production Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.145867

Xiaohua Song, Lu Zhang, Jingjing Han, Qiaochu Li, Siyi Li, Jiajing Li, Shangze Xu

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在新的可再生能源投资组合标准（RPS）下，中国可再生能源的发展面临各种困难。这些因素影响着可再生能源生产商的投资决策。本文提出了一种新的可再生能源投资决策模型来解决新可再生能源投资决策过程中的不确定性问题。采用实物期权法，考虑了市场电价、价格政策、可交易绿色证书（TGC）价格、税收优惠、投资成本变化等多种影响因素。详细分析了可再生能源发电企业的投资价值和最优投资时机。此外，对不确定因素的敏感性分析揭示了新RPS对投资决策的影响。结论为投资者提供了明确的建议，也激励了政府推动中国能源-低碳转型发展。

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Research on investment decision-making of renewable power producers under the new Renewable Portfolio Standards

Under the new Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), China's advancement in renewable energy encounters various difficulties. These influence the investment decisions of renewable power producers. This paper proposes a model to address the uncertainty problem in the renewable power investment decision-making process under the new RPS. The real options (RO) method is adopted, considering multiple influencing factors, including market electricity prices, price policies, Tradable Green Certificate (TGC) prices, tax incentives, and changes in investment costs. The investment value and optimal investment timing of renewable power producers are analyzed in detail. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of uncertain factors reveals the impact of the new RPS on the investment decision. The conclusion provides clear recommendations for investors and inspires the government to promote China's energy-low-carbon transformation and development.

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来源期刊

Journal of Cleaner Production 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

20.40

自引率

9.00%

发文量

4720

审稿时长

111 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Cleaner Production is an international, transdisciplinary journal that addresses and discusses theoretical and practical Cleaner Production, Environmental, and Sustainability issues. It aims to help societies become more sustainable by focusing on the concept of 'Cleaner Production', which aims at preventing waste production and increasing efficiencies in energy, water, resources, and human capital use. The journal serves as a platform for corporations, governments, education institutions, regions, and societies to engage in discussions and research related to Cleaner Production, environmental, and sustainability practices.