Identification and simulation of ecological zoning in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) Urban Agglomeration based on Ecological Service Value (ESV)–Landscape Ecological Risk (LER)

Ecological zoning, by accurately identifying regional ecological issues, aids in addressing the ecological and environmental challenges posed by rapid urbanization and plays a pivotal role in ecological conservation and sustainable development. This study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of ecosystem service value (ESV) and landscape ecological risk (LER) in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration from 1990 to 2020. Using spatial correlation analysis between ESV and LER, ecological zones were identified, and the potential distribution of ecological zoning under different 2030 scenarios was modeled. The results showed that: From 1990 to 2020, ESV initially increased and then decreased, with a cumulative rise of 3.60 billion yuan. Spatially, low and medium-low value zones dominated, while high value zones were primarily concentrated in water bodies. LER displayed a distinct north-south gradient, with high and medium-high risk zones together exceeding 50%. However, the overall risk level declined over time due to the transformation into neighboring low risk zones. The ecological conservation zone remained predominant in the zoning but decreased by 1.11%, whereas the ecological improvement zone, though the smallest in area, increased by 3.1%. The distribution of ecological zones in 2030 is expected to resemble that in 2020; under the ecological protection scenario, a 0.68% reduction in the ecological control zone could help counteract ecosystem service degradation risks. This study proposes effective ecological zoning management strategies for urban agglomerations to support coordinated regional and sustainable development.