Insight into the Influence of Ecological Factors on Shaping Distribution Patterns of Camptotheca acuminata for Conservation and Management.

Camptotheca acuminata Decne. is an endemic and valuable tree species in China that is renowned for its medicinal and economic value due to secondary metabolites like camptothecin, a potent anti-cancer compound. With wild resources dwindling, it is a key protected species. Predicting and analyzing its suitable habitats under different future environmental scenarios is essential for conservation, introduction, development, and planting strategies. This study used 1008 distribution points and 32 environmental factors, applying the MaxEnt v3.4.4 model and ArcGIS v10.7 software to predict C. acuminata's potential distribution under four greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) for the present, 2050, and 2070. This study identifies the key environmental factors influencing its distribution and analyzes habitat trends under various ecological scenarios. The dominant environmental factors are Bio6 (contribution 23%; importance 59.8%), human activity factor (contribution 18.6%; importance 15.7%), Slope2 (contribution 1%; importance 7%), Slope3 (contribution 5.1%; importance 3.4%), elevation (contribution 0.9%; importance 1.7%), and Bio14 (contribution 41.2%; importance 1%). The total potential suitable habitat area for C. acuminata is 1.5796 × 10⁴ km². Except under RCP8.5, where the habitat area continuously increases, the habitat area shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. When human activity is considered, the total potential suitable habitat area is 1.8495 × 10⁴ km², with a consistent decrease under all scenarios except RCP8.5. Centroid migration analysis shows that, driven by global warming, the suitable habitats for C. acuminata are shifting toward higher latitudes. This study provides theoretical support for the conservation, resource management, and germplasm protection of C. acuminata under future ecological and environmental changes.