Coupled assessment and risk reconfiguration of debris hazards in natural gas pipeline incidents via multi-scale stochastic modeling

Traditional risk assessment models for natural gas pipeline incidents predominantly focus on jet fire thermal radiation zones, while secondary hazards caused by ejected debris—owing to challenges in quantifying the randomness of debris quantity, mass, and ejection trajectories—are often underestimated. This study proposes a multi-scale coupled model integrating stochastic debris generation mechanisms and physical ejection processes to reconfigure the dynamic propagation pathways and spatial risk distribution of debris hazards. Leveraging statistical analysis of 95 global pipeline rupture incidents from 1954 to 2024, we established a probabilistic database for debris quantity, mass distribution, and ejection angles. A cohesive crack model was employed to simulate debris generation, with Monte Carlo methods addressing ejection parameter uncertainties. Validated against the 2009 pipeline rupture incident in Ontario, Canada, the model predicted that 97.2 % of debris landed within 150 m of the rupture site, aligning closely with observed maximum ejection distances. Full-scale simulations for pipeline section 100–4 revealed a maximum debris flight distance of 263.6 m, surpassing the thermal radiation boundary (222.9 m) calculated by the ASME B31.8S standard. This study exposes the systemic underestimation of hazard zones by conventional thermal radiation models and advocates integrating debris dynamics assessments into intelligent pipeline safety management systems. Furthermore, the proposed probabilistic-physical coupling framework supports multi-hazard synergy analysis (e.g., thermal radiation-debris-soil erosion interactions), offering a decision-making paradigm for high-precision pipeline design, resilient urban infrastructure planning, and energy transportation risk mitigation in the context of carbon neutrality349.