Priority areas for the conservation of tree species in a neotropical seasonal dry forest under deforestation and climate change scenarios

The Piedmont Forest in northwest Argentina, like most Neotropical seasonal dry forests, is one of the world́s most threatened ecosystems due to deforestation and climate change. To plan conservation strategies aimed at sustaining this forest type, the response to projected changes in habitat conditions must be anticipated. Our objectives were to determine the potential distribution and identify priority areas for conservation that remain stable for saplings and mature trees of three dominant species (Anadenanthera colubrina, Calycophyllum multiflorum, and Phyllostylon rhamnoides) in land use plan categories, protected areas, and forest types under current and two future climate scenarios in northwest Argentina. Calycophyllum multiflorum has the smallest current potential distribution of the three species, but expands to have the largest potential distribution under future climate scenarios. Deforestation reduced by 11–20 % and protected areas harbor < 10 % of the potential distribution of the three species in both age classes in current and future scenarios. In future scenarios, and compared to the current period, the overlap of the potential distribution will increase in the highest protection category, but also for areas categorized as low conservation value that can be transformed according to the land use plan. Half or more of the co-occurring potential distribution of each species, in each age class in current and future scenarios occurs in the Piedmont Forest. Three priority areas for conservation were identified totaling 5483 km² of which 9 % are currently within protected areas. Thus, at the end of this century the Piedmont Forest is likely to maintain its structure and function if measures are taken to ensure that natural tree regeneration can occur. In the face of future climate change, management policies can satisfy long-term conservation planning necessary to ensure persistence of Piedmont Forest function by protecting priority areas identified in this study.