Assessing import dependencies in the accelerating energy transition: A structural gravity model analysis

This paper examines macroeconomic issues of technological import dependence in the expansion of renewable energy generation capacity, a key concern for policymakers amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and the urgent need for a rapid energy transition. Despite the critical importance of understanding determinants in trade of clean energy technologies, previous studies have lacked empirical evidence on supply-side determinants. Using a structural gravity model, this study analyzes the relationship between technology imports and the expansion of wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) capacities. The findings reveal significant differences in countries’ development trajectories, showing that between 2000 and 2020, increases in renewable energy capacity did not substantially drive technology imports. A 100 % increase in the growth rate of wind energy capacity led to a 1.9 % increase in wind technology imports, while the same growth rate for solar PV resulted in a 6.2 % increase in PV technology imports. These findings hold even when China, the largest producer of clean energy technologies, is excluded from the dataset. Based on these results, it is recommended that policymakers continue to support renewable energy expansion, as it does not necessarily lead to higher import dependency and may offer opportunities for local industries, especially when coupled with industry-specific support measures.