The change pattern and spatiotemporal transition of land use carbon emissions in China's Three-North Shelterbelt Program Region

Land use carbon emissions have become a global research focus, with previous studies primarily concentrating on the estimation of carbon emissions from land use and the analysis of influencing factors. However, the spatial patterns and trends of land use carbon emissions are often overlooked, and neglecting this aspect may hinder the development of targeted mitigation measures and policies. Therefore, this study focuses on the ecological restoration Program region in China - the Three-North Shelter Forest Program (TNSFP). By combining the carbon emission coefficient method with Exploratory Spatial-Temporal Data Analysis (ESTDA), this research provides a visual analysis of the spatial patterns and trends of land use carbon emissions in the TNSFP region of China. We found that from 1995 to 2020, the total carbon emissions from land use in the TNSFP region increased from 2.78 × 10⁸ tons to 8.39 × 10⁸ tons, representing a threefold increase. Land use carbon emissions exhibited a significant positive spatial autocorrelation, with spatial convergence showing a trend of initially decreasing and then increasing. The spatiotemporal pattern of land use carbon emissions displayed clear path dependence and lock-in spatial characteristics, with a gradual weakening trend. We emphasize that urbanization has been the primary driver of carbon emissions in the TNSFP region, and traditional ecological conservation and afforestation policies aimed at enhancing carbon sequestration have proven insufficient in curbing the rise in carbon emissions. The findings offer new insights into the spatial patterns and trends of land use carbon emissions in China's ecological restoration regions, providing a deeper understanding. Additionally, they offer valuable references for the green, low-carbon, and sustainable development of ecological restoration regions in China and other countries, as well as for the formulation of differentiated carbon reduction policies.