A novel framework for assessing pluvial flooding resilience based on system dynamics approach at urban scale

Urban pluvial flooding has emerged as a growing risk to urban safety driven by intense rainfall. Integrated physically-based simulations and indicators-based approach have become widely adopted for urban flood resilience evaluation. However, existing research has primarily focused on the spatial aspects of flood risk, while often neglecting the evolution of resilience as a whole in flood events. Moreover, agent-based modeling simulations provide effective features for analyzing urban resilience. This study innovatively proposes an urban pluvial flood resilience assessment framework based on system dynamics methods. By utilizing urban flood models and agent-based modeling, it extracts the driving factors and key characteristics of urban flood resilience. The captured resilience indicators are then integrated into the system dynamics model to analyze the interactions between the system components and their evolution over time. Specifically, the framework consists of three main components: (1) The application of system dynamics methods to incorporate the complex urban flood system into the urban flood resilience assessment framework. (2) The extraction of resilience indicators using remote sensing, flood model simulations, and social behaviour analysis to capture the multidimensional characteristics of urban flood response. (3) The evaluation of the framework's reliability through scenario-driven simulations under varying rainfall intensities and uncertainty analysis of key parameters. The framework was applied in Jincheng, the results reveal that the evacuation process follows a three-stage pattern: rapid growth, stabilization, and slight fluctuations. Linear and nonlinear factors of crowd density, perception range of crowd density, and total number of individuals are relatively important parameters on the social response side. An increase in the return period leads to a systematic change in urban flood resilience, causing the key turning point to occur earlier. The comprehensive framework proposed in this study for assessing flood resilience provides a powerful tool and reference for addressing the increasing urban flood risk and climate change challenges.