Two functionalist logics of European Union polity formation under external threat: Evidence from a conjoint experiment.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine challenged the European Union (EU) polity exceptionally, affecting many policy domains. We argue that the external threat triggers different logics of (in)security which can result in polity formation across policies. Two functionalist logics put pressure on the EU to centralize policies that (a) help it meet the geopolitical challenge set by Russia and (b) maintain unity among member states in the face of the challenge. We test this theory with a conjoint survey experiment in Germany, France, Italy, Poland, and Hungary, where we vary refugee, energy, costs of living, and defense policies. Our results show that there is strong solidarity for sharing the costs of refugees, which cuts across ideological and identitarian groups, and across countries. Other policy areas show more contentious support.