货币数量理论：1870 - 2020年的实证分析

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2025-05-11 DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103681

Alexander Jung

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究通过考察18个工业化国家150年间（1870-2020）货币过度增长与通货膨胀之间的关系，重新审视了货币数量理论（QTM）。利用Jordà-Schularick-Taylor宏观历史数据库和先进的计量经济学技术，研究发现，这种长期关系的强度随着时间和不同的货币制度而变化：在古典金本位和最近的通货膨胀目标制时代，这种关系很弱，而在第一次世界大战后和大缓和之前，这种关系很强。货币与通货膨胀之间的联系在高通胀制度下非常可靠，但在低通胀环境下就不可靠了。实证分析还证实，货币刺激对通胀的传导存在长期和可变的滞后，货币过度增长会在2至2年半后影响通胀。

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The quantity theory of money: An empirical analysis for 1870 - 2020

This study revisits the Quantity Theory of Money (QTM) by examining the relationship between excess money growth and inflation over 150 years (1870–2020) in 18 industrialized countries. Utilizing the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database and advanced econometric techniques, the research uncovers that the strength of this long-run relationship has varied across time and different monetary regimes: it was weak during the classical gold standard and the recent age of inflation targeting, whereas it was strong after World War I and before the Great Moderation. The money-inflation link has been very reliable in high-inflation regimes but was unreliable in low-inflation environments. The empirical analysis also confirms long and variable lags in the transmission of monetary impulses to inflation, with excess money growth impacting inflation after 2 to 2½ years.

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来源期刊

Journal of Macroeconomics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

7.10%

发文量

审稿时长

76 days

期刊介绍： Since its inception in 1979, the Journal of Macroeconomics has published theoretical and empirical articles that span the entire range of macroeconomics and monetary economics. More specifically, the editors encourage the submission of high quality papers that are concerned with the theoretical or empirical aspects of the following broadly defined topics: economic growth, economic fluctuations, the effects of monetary and fiscal policy, the political aspects of macroeconomics, exchange rate determination and other elements of open economy macroeconomics, the macroeconomics of income inequality, and macroeconomic forecasting.