Bronwyn Wyatt , Amy Anderson , Stacey Ward , Laura A.B. Wilson
{"title":"在生物考古背景下探索与应激源暴露风险相关的死亡率差异的生成模型","authors":"Bronwyn Wyatt , Amy Anderson , Stacey Ward , Laura A.B. Wilson","doi":"10.1016/j.jas.2025.106275","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Generative models are an underutilized tool in bioarchaeology that make it possible to directly interrogate how age-at-death is influenced by varied risk of exposure to stressors, while accounting for factors which are ordinarily invisible to bioarchaeologists. Further, the visibility of suspected differences within populations at the sorts of sample sizes common to bioarchaeology can also be examined, helping to inform interpretation of findings.</div><div>In the present study, cohorts of 50, 100, 500, and 1000 individuals aged 0 years were generated. Each individual was assigned a frailty value, and to either high or low risk groups. These cohorts were run through simulation models in which exposure to stressors varied according to risk group and the severity of stressors if exposed. The difference in mean age-at-death between high and low risk group for each run was tested for significance using Welch's <em>t</em>-test. The model results are used to identify potential minimum sample sizes for bioarcheological research at which true differences in age-at-death due to difference in stressor exposure are likely to be visible.</div><div>Small cohorts (50 individuals) had low likelihood of detecting true risk group differences in age-at-death except when the difference in exposure to stressors or the severity of the stressor was great enough to produce a mean difference in lifespan of >20 years. The probability of observing a true difference in age-at-death between risk groups increased when the difference in stressor exposure and/or the stressor severity increased for all cohorts. Therefore, group-level differences in lifespan may not be identifiable in small archaeological samples except where stress or inequality is high. The low reliability of results from small samples reiterates the needs to carefully examine equifinality in bioarcheological research, as demonstrated through the application of this model to a case study which examined the Late Woodland phase of the Dickson Mounds. This application assessed the three potential hypotheses put forth by Goodman and Armelagos (1988) to establish how likely they may be when sample size is not a limiting factor on visibility of potential difference within populations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50254,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Archaeological Science","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 106275"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A generative model for exploring differences in mortality associated with stressor exposure risk in bioarchaeological contexts\",\"authors\":\"Bronwyn Wyatt , Amy Anderson , Stacey Ward , Laura A.B. Wilson\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jas.2025.106275\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Generative models are an underutilized tool in bioarchaeology that make it possible to directly interrogate how age-at-death is influenced by varied risk of exposure to stressors, while accounting for factors which are ordinarily invisible to bioarchaeologists. Further, the visibility of suspected differences within populations at the sorts of sample sizes common to bioarchaeology can also be examined, helping to inform interpretation of findings.</div><div>In the present study, cohorts of 50, 100, 500, and 1000 individuals aged 0 years were generated. Each individual was assigned a frailty value, and to either high or low risk groups. These cohorts were run through simulation models in which exposure to stressors varied according to risk group and the severity of stressors if exposed. The difference in mean age-at-death between high and low risk group for each run was tested for significance using Welch's <em>t</em>-test. The model results are used to identify potential minimum sample sizes for bioarcheological research at which true differences in age-at-death due to difference in stressor exposure are likely to be visible.</div><div>Small cohorts (50 individuals) had low likelihood of detecting true risk group differences in age-at-death except when the difference in exposure to stressors or the severity of the stressor was great enough to produce a mean difference in lifespan of >20 years. The probability of observing a true difference in age-at-death between risk groups increased when the difference in stressor exposure and/or the stressor severity increased for all cohorts. Therefore, group-level differences in lifespan may not be identifiable in small archaeological samples except where stress or inequality is high. The low reliability of results from small samples reiterates the needs to carefully examine equifinality in bioarcheological research, as demonstrated through the application of this model to a case study which examined the Late Woodland phase of the Dickson Mounds. This application assessed the three potential hypotheses put forth by Goodman and Armelagos (1988) to establish how likely they may be when sample size is not a limiting factor on visibility of potential difference within populations.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50254,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Archaeological Science\",\"volume\":\"180 \",\"pages\":\"Article 106275\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-27\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Archaeological Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305440325001244\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ANTHROPOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Archaeological Science","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305440325001244","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ANTHROPOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
A generative model for exploring differences in mortality associated with stressor exposure risk in bioarchaeological contexts
Generative models are an underutilized tool in bioarchaeology that make it possible to directly interrogate how age-at-death is influenced by varied risk of exposure to stressors, while accounting for factors which are ordinarily invisible to bioarchaeologists. Further, the visibility of suspected differences within populations at the sorts of sample sizes common to bioarchaeology can also be examined, helping to inform interpretation of findings.
In the present study, cohorts of 50, 100, 500, and 1000 individuals aged 0 years were generated. Each individual was assigned a frailty value, and to either high or low risk groups. These cohorts were run through simulation models in which exposure to stressors varied according to risk group and the severity of stressors if exposed. The difference in mean age-at-death between high and low risk group for each run was tested for significance using Welch's t-test. The model results are used to identify potential minimum sample sizes for bioarcheological research at which true differences in age-at-death due to difference in stressor exposure are likely to be visible.
Small cohorts (50 individuals) had low likelihood of detecting true risk group differences in age-at-death except when the difference in exposure to stressors or the severity of the stressor was great enough to produce a mean difference in lifespan of >20 years. The probability of observing a true difference in age-at-death between risk groups increased when the difference in stressor exposure and/or the stressor severity increased for all cohorts. Therefore, group-level differences in lifespan may not be identifiable in small archaeological samples except where stress or inequality is high. The low reliability of results from small samples reiterates the needs to carefully examine equifinality in bioarcheological research, as demonstrated through the application of this model to a case study which examined the Late Woodland phase of the Dickson Mounds. This application assessed the three potential hypotheses put forth by Goodman and Armelagos (1988) to establish how likely they may be when sample size is not a limiting factor on visibility of potential difference within populations.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Archaeological Science is aimed at archaeologists and scientists with particular interests in advancing the development and application of scientific techniques and methodologies to all areas of archaeology. This established monthly journal publishes focus articles, original research papers and major review articles, of wide archaeological significance. The journal provides an international forum for archaeologists and scientists from widely different scientific backgrounds who share a common interest in developing and applying scientific methods to inform major debates through improving the quality and reliability of scientific information derived from archaeological research.