Multiscale investigation of seismic precursors before major earthquakes

In various mechanical systems, the study of damage processes can be approached from the perspective of continuous phase transition phenomena, a subject typically explored within the framework of statistical physics. This viewpoint enables a more refined interpretation of failure precursors, which are of great importance in the field. The present study investigates failure precursors through two case studies: the material failure process by using the Fiber Bundle Model and the seismicity of the 2023 Turkey Mw7.7 earthquake. To identify the criticality, two approaches are considered: (1) Natural Time (NT) analysis and (2) the Method of Critical Fluctuation-Based (MCF-B) approach. By comparing the evolution of precursors in both cases, the findings highlight their potential for predicting critical situations.