狂犬病在犬群中随机传播动力学及疫苗接种效应分析

IF 2.8 3区 物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Gul Khan, Rasha Kadri Ibrahim, Abdelaziz Hendy, Sally Mohammed Farghaly Abdelaliem, Ahmed Hendy
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引用次数: 0

摘要

每年大约有5.5万人死于狂犬病病毒,这种病毒是由狗传播的。由于确定性方法忽略了效应随机性,如影响狂犬病过程动力学的不同环境因素。本研究采用考虑犬只接种疫苗影响的随机流行模型,研究犬只狂犬病在白噪声影响下的传播动态。首先,我们证明了全球解决方案的存在及其积极影响。然后计算基本的随机繁殖数作为决定疾病持续或灭绝的阈值。如果\(R_{0}^{s} < 1\),那么这种疾病将从人口中灭绝。如果\(R_{0}^{s}> 1\)这种疾病在人群中持续存在。最后,我们进行了数值模拟,以检验各种参数对疾病传播的影响。数值模拟结果表明,疫苗接种在疾病控制中起着至关重要的作用。相反,当感染的狗遇到易感的人和狗时,疾病就会传播。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Transmission dynamics of rabies through stochastic analysis with the effect of vaccination in dogs population

Each year, approximately 55,000 people die from the rabies virus, which is transmitted by dogs. Since deterministic approaches ignore effect randomness, such as different environmental factors that affect the rabies process dynamics. In this study, the stochastic epidemic model with the impact of vaccination for dogs is considered to investigate the transmission dynamics of rabies in the population with white noise effect. Firstly, we demonstrate the existence of a global solution and its positive impact. The basic stochastic reproduction number is then computed as a threshold that determines the persistence or extinction of the disease. If \(R_{0}^{s} < 1\) then the disease will be extinct from the population. And if \(R_{0}^{s}> 1\) the disease continues to persist in the population. Finally, we perform the numerical simulation to examine the impact of various parameters on the propagation of disease. The numerical simulation shows that vaccination plays a critical role in the control of the disease. In contrast, the disease spreads when infected dogs met susceptible humans and dogs.

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来源期刊
The European Physical Journal Plus
The European Physical Journal Plus PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
8.80%
发文量
1150
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: The aims of this peer-reviewed online journal are to distribute and archive all relevant material required to document, assess, validate and reconstruct in detail the body of knowledge in the physical and related sciences. The scope of EPJ Plus encompasses a broad landscape of fields and disciplines in the physical and related sciences - such as covered by the topical EPJ journals and with the explicit addition of geophysics, astrophysics, general relativity and cosmology, mathematical and quantum physics, classical and fluid mechanics, accelerator and medical physics, as well as physics techniques applied to any other topics, including energy, environment and cultural heritage.
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