《风化风暴:分析141个国家极端气候事件对能源消费的影响》

Chun Kai Leung , Jeremy Ko , Chunlan Guo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

该报告研究了1990年至2023年间141个国家的极端天气事件——特别是洪水、极端温度、森林大火和干旱——对人均能源消耗的影响。虽然现有的研究通常汇总了各种自然灾害或侧重于局部环境,但这项研究提供了一个全面的全球视角,分析了不同类型的极端天气如何影响能源消耗模式。采用固定效应面板回归模型,研究结果表明,洪水与能源消耗增加有关,特别是在发展中国家,而干旱与能源使用减少有关。相比之下,极端温度和森林大火对能源消耗没有统计上的显著影响。使用替代模型(如Tobit模型和两阶段最小二乘回归)进行稳健性检查,证实了这些结果的可靠性。分析表明,由于需要广泛的恢复和缓解措施,洪水会增加能源需求,而干旱则会对农业、工业和水电生产产生不利影响,从而减少能源消耗。这些发现对能源政策和气候适应能力具有重要意义,强调了加强能源系统适应性、提高能源效率和向面临气候压力的发展中国家提供支持的必要性。这项研究有助于理解极端天气事件如何影响能源动态,为制定有针对性的政策提供见解,旨在确保面对气候挑战的可持续发展。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Weathering the storm: Analyzing the impact of extreme climate events on energy consumption across 141 countries
The paper examines the effects of extreme weather events—specifically floods, extreme temperatures, bushfires, and droughts—on per capita energy consumption across 141 countries from 1990 to 2023. While existing research often aggregates various natural disasters or focuses on localized contexts, this study offers a comprehensive global perspective, analyzing how distinct types of extreme weather impact energy consumption patterns. Employing a fixed-effects panel regression model, the findings reveal that floods correlate with increased energy consumption, particularly in developing countries, whereas droughts are associated with decreased energy use. In contrast, extreme temperatures and bushfires do not exhibit a statistically significant impact on energy consumption. Robustness checks using alternative models, such as the Tobit model and two-stage least squares regression, confirm the reliability of these results. The analysis suggests that floods escalate energy demand due to the extensive recovery and mitigation efforts required, while droughts diminish consumption through their detrimental effects on agriculture, industry, and hydropower production. These findings hold significant implications for energy policy and climate resilience, underscoring the necessity to enhance the adaptability of energy systems, improve energy efficiency, and extend support to developing nations facing climatic stressors. This study contributes to the understanding of how extreme weather events shape energy dynamics, providing insights for the formulation of targeted policies aimed at ensuring sustainable development in the face of climate challenges.
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CiteScore
10.70
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