Comprehensive methodology for assessing the impact of vehicle-to-grid integration in power system expansion planning

The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) emphasizes the critical need to assess their integration into the electricity grid for a sustainable energy transition. Existing literature lacks comprehensive vehicle-to-grid (V2G) impact analyses and methodologies for long-term integration, particularly in developing countries. Moreover, the absence of optimized short-term operational models for EV integration poses challenges in grid management. To bridge these gaps, this research proposes a socio-economic model to estimate EV sales based on the Bass diffusion model and macroeconomic regressions. Additionally, it integrates electricity system expansion planning using the OSeMOSYS tool with a short-term operational model based on unit commitment. In this context, this work endeavors to develop a methodology for estimating the impact of V2G technology, considering both the deployment and utilization of EVs in a Brazilian case study. Applying traditional methodologies that do not consider operational system models can lead to potential future load shedding. It may accentuate disparities between long-term and short-term outcomes, especially with EV and V2G integration. The proposed methodology corrected the overestimation of the energy injection potential of EVs by the traditional model, indicating the need to consider both the expansion and the operation of the electricity system when planning the integration of EVs.