Prognostic role of serum CA-125 and CA19-9 in lung transplant candidates with interstitial lung disease: a retrospective cohort study.

Background: Advanced interstitial lung disease (ILD) often necessitates lung transplantation, and identifying accessible prognostic markers is essential for effective management. However, the link between serum tumour markers and survival in waitlisted lung transplant candidates with advanced ILD remains underexplored.

Objective: To evaluate associations between serum tumour marker levels and long-term survival in lung transplant candidates with advanced ILD.

Methods: This study included 282 patients with end-stage ILD who were waitlisted for lung transplantation from November 2012 to March 2021. Baseline data and serum tumour marker levels were assessed before listing. Vital status and transplant outcomes were retrospectively reviewed as of 31 May 2023. Associations between tumour markers, clinical variables and mortality were analysed using Cox proportional hazards models with competing risk regression.

Results: During a median wait time of 17.8 months (IQR: 7.8-44.1), 107 patients received transplants, 38 survived on the list and 137 died while waiting. Multivariable analysis identified higher CA-125 levels (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.06, p=0.001), older age (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.06, p=0.001), female gender (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.04, p<0.04), elevated C-reactive protein (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.34, p=0.01) and cerebrovascular disease (HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.38 to 2.98, p=0.01) as significant predictors of mortality.

Conclusion: Among waitlisted lung transplant candidates with advanced ILD, elevated serum carbohydrate antigen (CA)-125 and CA19-9 levels are associated with higher mortality risk. Routine assessment of these markers may enhance risk stratification for this patient population.