{"title":"灾害风险模糊下的资本再配置与可持续增长","authors":"Yanming Yao , Yuan Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107136","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We formulate a two-sector general equilibrium model that incorporates capital reallocation and ambiguity aversion to disaster risk under recursive utility. We demonstrate how capital distribution between green and brown sectors influences endogenous investment, growth rate, risk-free rate, and uncertainty premium. Moreover, we reveal that ambiguity aversion to disaster risk accelerates capital reallocation, thus explaining the rapid green transformation during the ambiguous circumstances. Furthermore, we find that although the marginal growth rate associated with capital reallocation decreases at the sectoral level, it increases at the aggregate level, implying that capital reallocation contributes to sustainable growth. Our findings also reveal that the disaster uncertainty premium, comprising disaster risk premium and ambiguity premium, is additive even though the utility is not.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107136"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Capital reallocation and sustainable growth with ambiguity to disaster risk\",\"authors\":\"Yanming Yao , Yuan Tian\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107136\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>We formulate a two-sector general equilibrium model that incorporates capital reallocation and ambiguity aversion to disaster risk under recursive utility. We demonstrate how capital distribution between green and brown sectors influences endogenous investment, growth rate, risk-free rate, and uncertainty premium. Moreover, we reveal that ambiguity aversion to disaster risk accelerates capital reallocation, thus explaining the rapid green transformation during the ambiguous circumstances. Furthermore, we find that although the marginal growth rate associated with capital reallocation decreases at the sectoral level, it increases at the aggregate level, implying that capital reallocation contributes to sustainable growth. Our findings also reveal that the disaster uncertainty premium, comprising disaster risk premium and ambiguity premium, is additive even though the utility is not.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48419,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Economic Modelling\",\"volume\":\"151 \",\"pages\":\"Article 107136\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Economic Modelling\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999325001312\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economic Modelling","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999325001312","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Capital reallocation and sustainable growth with ambiguity to disaster risk
We formulate a two-sector general equilibrium model that incorporates capital reallocation and ambiguity aversion to disaster risk under recursive utility. We demonstrate how capital distribution between green and brown sectors influences endogenous investment, growth rate, risk-free rate, and uncertainty premium. Moreover, we reveal that ambiguity aversion to disaster risk accelerates capital reallocation, thus explaining the rapid green transformation during the ambiguous circumstances. Furthermore, we find that although the marginal growth rate associated with capital reallocation decreases at the sectoral level, it increases at the aggregate level, implying that capital reallocation contributes to sustainable growth. Our findings also reveal that the disaster uncertainty premium, comprising disaster risk premium and ambiguity premium, is additive even though the utility is not.
期刊介绍:
Economic Modelling fills a major gap in the economics literature, providing a single source of both theoretical and applied papers on economic modelling. The journal prime objective is to provide an international review of the state-of-the-art in economic modelling. Economic Modelling publishes the complete versions of many large-scale models of industrially advanced economies which have been developed for policy analysis. Examples are the Bank of England Model and the US Federal Reserve Board Model which had hitherto been unpublished. As individual models are revised and updated, the journal publishes subsequent papers dealing with these revisions, so keeping its readers as up to date as possible.