Net-zero Turkey: Renewable energy potential and implementation challenges

Turkey (Türkiye) aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2053, yet remains heavily reliant on fossil fuel imports, accounting for more than 70% of its total energy use. The energy sector is also the largest contributor to national greenhouse gas emissions, responsible for 71.8% of the total in 2022. Renewables comprised 59.4% of installed capacity by energy source in 2024 and generated 45.5% of the electricity consumed. This research presents an original synthesis of energy data in Turkey through a meta-analysis of renewable energy potential, complemented by a comprehensive assessment of national demand–supply dynamics and literature. The analysis identifies critical gaps between theoretical potential and actual implementation, revealing underutilisation of available resources. Solar potential is estimated at 380 TWh/year, yet only 25 TWh is currently produced. Similarly, only 13 GW of a 48 GW wind potential is installed. Geothermal installed capacity stands at 4.5 GW˙e, utilising 38.4% of the potential. Reservoir levels in several basins critical to hydropower have declined since 2010, with Gediz experiencing a reduction of 45.5%. These trends, driven by climate variability and overuse, have adversely affected hydropower generation in regions where water availability has become increasingly unreliable. Geographical mismatches in demand and supply exist—demand centres are located in the industrial northwest, whereas optimal generation sites are in remote areas, necessitating significant infrastructure investment. Barriers to scaling renewables deployment include grid and storage limitations, regulatory constraints, and inadequate infrastructure. Meeting the projected 2035 electricity demand of 511 TWh sustainably requires the prioritisation of resource optimisation alongside capacity expansion. The net-zero energy transition requires modernising existing facilities, integrating storage solutions, enhancing grid infrastructure, and developing comprehensive policy frameworks for large-scale and distributed renewable energy.