Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and material use for passenger vehicles in Türkiye: A scenario-based analysis with material efficiency strategies

Türkiye has not yet decoupled its economy from energy and material consumption, but aims to transition to a circular economy and become carbon neutral by 2053. The potential of energy system transformation and efficient material use has not yet been assessed for many services in Türkiye. This study analyzes the impacts of these transformations on passenger vehicles, using the RECC model, a physical circular economy model, under two energy and three socioeconomic scenarios. In SSP1, 20% savings in 2020–2053 cumulative GHG emissions can be achieved through energy efficiency, and material efficiency can save an additional 12%. In the low demand scenario, LED, cumulative emissions reduction reaches 42%. In SSP1, cumulative material savings can be 45%, and secondary material use reaches 50% share. LED can achieve Türkiye’s targets for the transport sector, and its implementation depends on financial and R&D support to industries, infrastructure improvements, and changes in consumer driving habits.