Improved pest and disease spread model for simulating the spread of invasive species: A case study of pine wilt disease

Biological invasion is a major environmental issue facing the world today. Controlling invasive species has become a key focus of governments globally. Pine wilt disease (PWD) is a significant invasive species in China. This study examines the invasion and expansion processes of PWD and provides control strategies. Three regions in China with differing climatic, environmental, and socio-economic conditions were selected. Using real disaster records from 2018 to 2022, the K-means clustering method was applied to analyse the mechanisms of disease spread. Epidemic patches were classified into two groups: invasion-type and expansion-type. By considering both natural and human factors driving the invasion and expansion of PWD, the PoPS model was improved. The model was then used to analyse the effectiveness of control measures against PWD spread in China. The results indicate that the calculated boundary distances and the improved model effectively explained new outbreaks caused by the invasion and expansion processes. Simulation results, combined with China’s current control strategies, provide recommendations for disaster prevention. This study describes PWD spread as two processes: invasion and expansion. It reveals the transmission dynamics of PWD in China, offers a predictive model, and proposes control strategies. The findings provide scientific support for disaster prevention and research on invasive species.