Stefano Dell'Atti , Andrea Paltrinieri , Caterina Di Tommaso , Grazia Onorato
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Assessment of banking risk in the context of the oil and gas bubbles
This study offers empirical evidence indicating the transfer of price bubbles from the oil and gas markets to banking risk following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 causing the outburst of a major energy crisis. Against this backdrop, the objective of this paper is threefold. First, we employ the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model, to identify both positive and negative bubbles within the oil, gas, and banking markets, characterized by pronounced price fluctuations. As a second objective, the study employs a bivariate vector autoregression (VAR) model, to analyze the explosive price movements within the oil and gas markets and banking risk using the LPPLS series. To reach the third objective, we apply an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with cointegration, to scrutinize both the long-run and short-run effects of the oil and gas market on banking risk. The paper contributes to the literature on the predictability of bubbles in oil and gas markets and the shift of the transmission bubbles in other markets.
期刊介绍:
Energy Economics is a field journal that focuses on energy economics and energy finance. It covers various themes including the exploitation, conversion, and use of energy, markets for energy commodities and derivatives, regulation and taxation, forecasting, environment and climate, international trade, development, and monetary policy. The journal welcomes contributions that utilize diverse methods such as experiments, surveys, econometrics, decomposition, simulation models, equilibrium models, optimization models, and analytical models. It publishes a combination of papers employing different methods to explore a wide range of topics. The journal's replication policy encourages the submission of replication studies, wherein researchers reproduce and extend the key results of original studies while explaining any differences. Energy Economics is indexed and abstracted in several databases including Environmental Abstracts, Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Social Sciences Citation Index, GEOBASE, Social & Behavioral Sciences, Journal of Economic Literature, INSPEC, and more.