Assessing the strength of innovations in the treatment of depression.

Although treatments for depression are effective, many patients do not respond. Many new innovations are currently being developed, claiming to substantially improve outcomes. We propose a new method to assess the strength of these innovations. Based on response rates of current treatments, we can estimate how many treatments are needed in total to realise response in >99% of patients if they were to be offered another treatment when the previous one did not work. Using a basic model as a benchmark, we can show that none of the current innovations likely represents a 'silver bullet' that will dramatically change the outcomes. Improvement of mental healthcare for depression needs to be done by multiple, incremental innovations. Only together can these innovations substantially improve outcomes.