Global photovoltaic waste under ratcheting climate ambition: Spatio-temporal distribution and future pathways

Climate ambition will lead to disparate PV installation capacity pathways, thereby influencing PV waste volumes. However, there is a lack of research on global PV waste under ambitious climate commitments. Here, we conduct a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of the global PV waste by using GCAM and MFA. The results indicate that: (1) Ambitious climate commitments will elevate global PV waste by 8 %–19 % compared to the baseline scenario. (2) The surge in PV waste is expected to occur around 2045 in “hump-shaped” regions (the EU-15, China, Japan, Australia), while “growth-oriented” regions (Africa, Southeast Asia) will face gradual decommissioning in the latter half-century. (3) By 2050, 2465–3252 GW of PV panels will be decommissioned cumulatively, containing 45 million tons of base metals and releasing 134,900 tons of hazardous substances (cadmium, selenium and lead). This study enables strategic identification of recyclable components in PV waste and provides empirical evidence for developing recycling infrastructure to accommodate projected waste volume increases under ratcheting climate ambition.