在谣言的漩涡中：企业的谣言和分析师的预测分散

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI:10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104346

Wenwu Cai , Yuyang Zhao , Haohua Li , Zhongyi Xue

{"title":"在谣言的漩涡中：企业的谣言和分析师的预测分散","authors":"Wenwu Cai , Yuyang Zhao , Haohua Li , Zhongyi Xue","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104346","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates whether and how corporate rumors affect analyst forecast dispersion. Using hand-collected rumors involving Chinese A-share listed firms from 2007 to 2023, we find that corporate rumors significantly increase analyst forecast dispersion, and this effect is robust to a battery of sensitivity tests. Mechanism tests reveal that corporate rumors aggravate analyst forecast dispersion by amplifying media disagreement and increasing information uncertainty. Moreover, the rumor effect is more significant for firms with higher operational uncertainty, greater information opacity, less analyst communication, and those located in regions with lower media ethics. Taken together, our findings suggest that the emergence of corporate rumors can disrupt the information environment of the rumored firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 104346"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"In the swirl of rumors: Corporate rumors and analyst forecast dispersion\",\"authors\":\"Wenwu Cai , Yuyang Zhao , Haohua Li , Zhongyi Xue\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104346\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>This study investigates whether and how corporate rumors affect analyst forecast dispersion. Using hand-collected rumors involving Chinese A-share listed firms from 2007 to 2023, we find that corporate rumors significantly increase analyst forecast dispersion, and this effect is robust to a battery of sensitivity tests. Mechanism tests reveal that corporate rumors aggravate analyst forecast dispersion by amplifying media disagreement and increasing information uncertainty. Moreover, the rumor effect is more significant for firms with higher operational uncertainty, greater information opacity, less analyst communication, and those located in regions with lower media ethics. Taken together, our findings suggest that the emergence of corporate rumors can disrupt the information environment of the rumored firms.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48226,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Review of Financial Analysis\",\"volume\":\"104 \",\"pages\":\"Article 104346\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Review of Financial Analysis\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521925004338\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Review of Financial Analysis","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521925004338","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究探讨公司谣言是否及如何影响分析师预测的离散度。利用2007 - 2023年中国a股上市公司的谣言，我们发现公司谣言显著增加了分析师预测的离散度，并且这种效应在一系列敏感性测试中是稳健的。机制检验表明，企业谣言通过放大媒介分歧和增加信息不确定性，加剧了分析师预测的分散性。此外，对于经营不确定性较高、信息不透明程度较高、分析师沟通较少的企业，以及位于媒体道德水平较低地区的企业，谣言效应更为显著。综上所述，我们的研究结果表明，企业谣言的出现会破坏被谣言企业的信息环境。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

In the swirl of rumors: Corporate rumors and analyst forecast dispersion

This study investigates whether and how corporate rumors affect analyst forecast dispersion. Using hand-collected rumors involving Chinese A-share listed firms from 2007 to 2023, we find that corporate rumors significantly increase analyst forecast dispersion, and this effect is robust to a battery of sensitivity tests. Mechanism tests reveal that corporate rumors aggravate analyst forecast dispersion by amplifying media disagreement and increasing information uncertainty. Moreover, the rumor effect is more significant for firms with higher operational uncertainty, greater information opacity, less analyst communication, and those located in regions with lower media ethics. Taken together, our findings suggest that the emergence of corporate rumors can disrupt the information environment of the rumored firms.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

International Review of Financial Analysis BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

10.30

自引率

9.80%

发文量

366

期刊介绍： The International Review of Financial Analysis (IRFA) is an impartial refereed journal designed to serve as a platform for high-quality financial research. It welcomes a diverse range of financial research topics and maintains an unbiased selection process. While not limited to U.S.-centric subjects, IRFA, as its title suggests, is open to valuable research contributions from around the world.