Qian Cai, Bohao Liu, Chen Zou, Huabin Su, Xiao Zhao, Fang Jia, Xiaoyang Li, Weian Zhu, Yun Luo
{"title":"1990年至2021年全球吸烟相关前列腺癌负担及2031年预测。","authors":"Qian Cai, Bohao Liu, Chen Zou, Huabin Su, Xiao Zhao, Fang Jia, Xiaoyang Li, Weian Zhu, Yun Luo","doi":"10.18332/tid/204300","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Smoking is a significant risk factor for prostate cancer (PCa), a major health threat for aging males globally. This study evaluates the worldwide burden of smoking-related PCa from 1990 to 2021 and projects trends to 2031.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, we analyzed age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage changes for mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across different age groups, sociodemographic index (SDI) levels, regions, and countries, employing hierarchical clustering and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From 1990 to 2021, global smoking-related prostate cancer burden declined, with annual reductions in ASRs for mortality, YLLs, and DALYs, while YLDs initially increased before declining. Age-specific analysis revealed the highest ASRs for mortality, YLLs, and DALYs in the 90-94 years age group, whereas YLDs peaked at 70-74 years of age. SDI regions exhibited elevated ASRs but the most pronounced declines, and were the only areas with negative YLD trends. The disparity in disability rates between high and low SDI countries diminished from 7.33 (95% CI: 6.04-8.63) in 1990 to 3.78 (95% CI: 2.64-4.92) in 2021, and the concentration index decreased from 0.34 (95% CI: 0.28-0.39) to 0.15 (95% CI: 0.10-0.20). The ARIMA models predict that DALYs will decrease from 3.215 (95% CI: 3.169-3.26) in 2022 to 2.69 (95% CI: 2.159-3.221) in 2031, YLLS will decrease from 2.827 (95% CI: 2.787-2.866) to 2.336 (95% CI: 1.855-2.817), YLDs and deaths will stabilize in a gradually decreasing trend.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Despite improved global equity in smoking-related PCa burden, targeted interventions for elderly populations, enhanced tobacco control policies, and region-specific prevention strategies remain essential to further reduce this preventable disease burden worldwide.</p>","PeriodicalId":23202,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Induced Diseases","volume":"23 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12083077/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The global burden of smoking-related prostate cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2031.\",\"authors\":\"Qian Cai, Bohao Liu, Chen Zou, Huabin Su, Xiao Zhao, Fang Jia, Xiaoyang Li, Weian Zhu, Yun Luo\",\"doi\":\"10.18332/tid/204300\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Smoking is a significant risk factor for prostate cancer (PCa), a major health threat for aging males globally. This study evaluates the worldwide burden of smoking-related PCa from 1990 to 2021 and projects trends to 2031.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, we analyzed age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage changes for mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across different age groups, sociodemographic index (SDI) levels, regions, and countries, employing hierarchical clustering and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From 1990 to 2021, global smoking-related prostate cancer burden declined, with annual reductions in ASRs for mortality, YLLs, and DALYs, while YLDs initially increased before declining. Age-specific analysis revealed the highest ASRs for mortality, YLLs, and DALYs in the 90-94 years age group, whereas YLDs peaked at 70-74 years of age. SDI regions exhibited elevated ASRs but the most pronounced declines, and were the only areas with negative YLD trends. The disparity in disability rates between high and low SDI countries diminished from 7.33 (95% CI: 6.04-8.63) in 1990 to 3.78 (95% CI: 2.64-4.92) in 2021, and the concentration index decreased from 0.34 (95% CI: 0.28-0.39) to 0.15 (95% CI: 0.10-0.20). The ARIMA models predict that DALYs will decrease from 3.215 (95% CI: 3.169-3.26) in 2022 to 2.69 (95% CI: 2.159-3.221) in 2031, YLLS will decrease from 2.827 (95% CI: 2.787-2.866) to 2.336 (95% CI: 1.855-2.817), YLDs and deaths will stabilize in a gradually decreasing trend.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Despite improved global equity in smoking-related PCa burden, targeted interventions for elderly populations, enhanced tobacco control policies, and region-specific prevention strategies remain essential to further reduce this preventable disease burden worldwide.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":23202,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Tobacco Induced Diseases\",\"volume\":\"23 \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12083077/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Tobacco Induced Diseases\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.18332/tid/204300\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/1/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Tobacco Induced Diseases","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.18332/tid/204300","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
The global burden of smoking-related prostate cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2031.
Introduction: Smoking is a significant risk factor for prostate cancer (PCa), a major health threat for aging males globally. This study evaluates the worldwide burden of smoking-related PCa from 1990 to 2021 and projects trends to 2031.
Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, we analyzed age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage changes for mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across different age groups, sociodemographic index (SDI) levels, regions, and countries, employing hierarchical clustering and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling.
Results: From 1990 to 2021, global smoking-related prostate cancer burden declined, with annual reductions in ASRs for mortality, YLLs, and DALYs, while YLDs initially increased before declining. Age-specific analysis revealed the highest ASRs for mortality, YLLs, and DALYs in the 90-94 years age group, whereas YLDs peaked at 70-74 years of age. SDI regions exhibited elevated ASRs but the most pronounced declines, and were the only areas with negative YLD trends. The disparity in disability rates between high and low SDI countries diminished from 7.33 (95% CI: 6.04-8.63) in 1990 to 3.78 (95% CI: 2.64-4.92) in 2021, and the concentration index decreased from 0.34 (95% CI: 0.28-0.39) to 0.15 (95% CI: 0.10-0.20). The ARIMA models predict that DALYs will decrease from 3.215 (95% CI: 3.169-3.26) in 2022 to 2.69 (95% CI: 2.159-3.221) in 2031, YLLS will decrease from 2.827 (95% CI: 2.787-2.866) to 2.336 (95% CI: 1.855-2.817), YLDs and deaths will stabilize in a gradually decreasing trend.
Conclusions: Despite improved global equity in smoking-related PCa burden, targeted interventions for elderly populations, enhanced tobacco control policies, and region-specific prevention strategies remain essential to further reduce this preventable disease burden worldwide.
期刊介绍：
Tobacco Induced Diseases encompasses all aspects of research related to the prevention and control of tobacco use at a global level. Preventing diseases attributable to tobacco is only one aspect of the journal, whose overall scope is to provide a forum for the publication of research articles that can contribute to reducing the burden of tobacco induced diseases globally. To address this epidemic we believe that there must be an avenue for the publication of research/policy activities on tobacco control initiatives that may be very important at a regional and national level. This approach provides a very important "hands on" service to the tobacco control community at a global scale - as common problems have common solutions. Hence, we see ourselves as "connectors" within this global community.
The journal hence encourages the submission of articles from all medical, biological and psychosocial disciplines, ranging from medical and dental clinicians, through health professionals to basic biomedical and clinical scientists.
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