Geographies of anti-political establishment parties in the Netherlands: The role of broader welfare and local representation

The Dutch provincial elections of 2023 saw an electoral victory of the new challenger party BBB (Farmer-Citizens Movement). This fits in an on-going trend of electoral successes by anti-establishment parties, including victories for the PVV (Party for Freedom) and Forum for Democracy (FVD). This article investigates the geographical electoral patterns of protest voting and underlying discontent. It compares the electoral geographies of Dutch protest parties BBB, PVV and FVD on the neighborhood-level in the provincial elections of 2023 and 2019, using a multilevel modelling approach incorporating the municipal and neighborhood level. Voting shares are linked to a broad set of spatial determinants for regional discontent. Results show that the parties have distinct electoral geographies and indicate different roots of discontent. Empirical evidence shows the importance of broader welfare, local livability and well-being in electoral anti-establishment voting patterns. Furthermore, a relationship is found between anti-establishment voting and support for local candidates.