What does it take to survive? An expert elicitation approach to understanding the drivers of fire Refugia occurrence and persistence

Fire is an important ecosystem process globally. However, climate change is intensifying fire regimes resulting in high impacts on many aspects of landscape patterns. Refugia, or unburnt areas within fires, are important for species survival during fire and for recovery after a fire. Understanding the contemporary patterns of fire refugia is important for current fire risk management and long-term conservation planning. In this study we qualify the patterns of fire refugia in southeastern Australia to better inform fire risk management. We use qualitative expert elicitation approaches to identify the variables that land, and fire managers across three case study regions deemed to be the key drivers of fire refugia. We also elicited from experts the relationships between these key drivers and the probability of fire refugia persisting under extreme and benign fire weather conditions. Fire refugia were thought to be restricted spatially due to top-down topographic influences on vegetation structure and composition, as well as moisture. Persistent fire refugia are those which maintain these moisture gradients in the most extreme fire weather conditions. Ephemeral refugia do not have any unique environmental conditions, they differ from persistent refugia as they do not always persist in extreme fire conditions. Fire weather has a dominant role in determining fire refugia, highlighting the challenges of maintaining these sites under predicted climate change. Expert knowledge adds to the tool kit of approaches available for identifying and mapping fire refugia, such as remote sensing approaches.