Impact of logistics delivery performance on consumers’ future purchase behavior: Evidence from an e-commerce platform in China

Logistics plays a crucial role in the operations of e-commerce platforms, but few studies have directly investigated its influence on consumer purchase frequency. While some research indicates a significant positive relationship between logistics performance and consumer satisfaction, relying solely on satisfaction scores to predict future purchasing behavior may lead to the “customer satisfaction trap.” This study empirically examines the impact of logistics performance on consumer purchase frequency using data from e-commerce platforms specializing in cross-border luxury goods. Leveraging detailed consumer purchase data, we circumvent the pitfalls of the “customer satisfaction trap.” Our analysis reveals surprising insights into how cross-border shipping times affect future purchasing behavior and how the rigorous quality inspection processes for luxury goods influence consumer decisions. By linking consumer order records with logistics completion and merchant processing efficiency, we uncover the nuanced effects of logistics performance on consumer behavior. Our findings suggest that delivery delays and extended transit times negatively impact purchase frequency, particularly when coupled with increased shipping costs, although this negative effect is somewhat attenuated in the context of cross-border shipping. Intriguingly, we observe a positive relationship between increased order processing time and consumer purchase frequency, indicating that consumers prioritize quality assurance, even if it entails longer wait times for product inspection.