Alternative Energy Will Greatly Reduce the Impact of Aircraft Activities on Public Health in China

The increasing PM_2.5 emissions from aviation in China significantly impact human health, necessitating the urgent adoption of clean energy solutions. This study assesses the impact of aviation-related PM_2.5 emissions on deaths in China from 2024 to 2050. PM_2.5 concentration data from 2015 to 2022 are used as a baseline, and three healthcare development scenarios are considered. The study then compares the changes in aviation PM_2.5 concentrations under different mitigation pathways, including Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), Hydrogen Turbine Engine (HTE), and Hydrogen Fuel Cell (HFC) engine. It incorporates these into the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) to estimate the excess deaths attributable to aviation activities in China. The scenario with significant medical improvements results in 4365 deaths by 2050, only 15.37% of the deaths in Business as Usual (BAU), and 32.91% in the scenarios with medical congestion due to severe aging. Using clean energy in China’s aviation sector can reduce the number of deaths caused by PM_2.5 emissions from aviation, with varying degrees of improvement depending on the start time and type of clean energy used. Further analysis reveals that in all scenarios, the proportion of male deaths is higher than that of females, at 58.10, 61.20, and 59.23%. Deaths due to ischemic heart disease (IHD) constitute the highest proportion, approximately 49.43%.