{"title":"中国碳市场与相关市场溢出效应的多尺度分析:地缘政治风险的影响","authors":"Jing Liu , Xin Zhao , Lili Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108543","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the spillover effects between China's carbon market and related markets, considering geopolitical factors. By using the spillover index method, MEMD decomposition, and the TVP-VAR model, the paper quantifies the spillovers at multiple scales. The findings indicate that: (1) significant spillover effects exist among China's carbon, energy, and financial markets, with the oil market being the major risk spillover source and the foreign exchange market playing an important intermediary role in risk transmission; (2) spillover effects are heterogeneous across time scales, with medium to long-term spillovers being the most prominent, suggesting long-term fundamental factors primarily drive risk spillovers; (3) spillover effects exhibit time-varying characteristics, with intensified spillovers typically triggered by economic crises, geopolitical events, policy changes, and other major incidents; (4) geopolitical risks have a significant impact on spillovers within the “carbon-energy-finance” system, though the impact's magnitude and direction vary depending on the specific geopolitical event. These results provide valuable guidance for policymakers and investors in China and other developing countries on the operation and investment of carbon markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 108543"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A multi-scale analysis of spillover effects between the Chinese carbon market and related markets: The impact of the geopolitical risk\",\"authors\":\"Jing Liu , Xin Zhao , Lili Ding\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108543\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>This study examines the spillover effects between China's carbon market and related markets, considering geopolitical factors. By using the spillover index method, MEMD decomposition, and the TVP-VAR model, the paper quantifies the spillovers at multiple scales. The findings indicate that: (1) significant spillover effects exist among China's carbon, energy, and financial markets, with the oil market being the major risk spillover source and the foreign exchange market playing an important intermediary role in risk transmission; (2) spillover effects are heterogeneous across time scales, with medium to long-term spillovers being the most prominent, suggesting long-term fundamental factors primarily drive risk spillovers; (3) spillover effects exhibit time-varying characteristics, with intensified spillovers typically triggered by economic crises, geopolitical events, policy changes, and other major incidents; (4) geopolitical risks have a significant impact on spillovers within the “carbon-energy-finance” system, though the impact's magnitude and direction vary depending on the specific geopolitical event. These results provide valuable guidance for policymakers and investors in China and other developing countries on the operation and investment of carbon markets.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11665,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Energy Economics\",\"volume\":\"147 \",\"pages\":\"Article 108543\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":13.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Energy Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325003676\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Energy Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325003676","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
A multi-scale analysis of spillover effects between the Chinese carbon market and related markets: The impact of the geopolitical risk
This study examines the spillover effects between China's carbon market and related markets, considering geopolitical factors. By using the spillover index method, MEMD decomposition, and the TVP-VAR model, the paper quantifies the spillovers at multiple scales. The findings indicate that: (1) significant spillover effects exist among China's carbon, energy, and financial markets, with the oil market being the major risk spillover source and the foreign exchange market playing an important intermediary role in risk transmission; (2) spillover effects are heterogeneous across time scales, with medium to long-term spillovers being the most prominent, suggesting long-term fundamental factors primarily drive risk spillovers; (3) spillover effects exhibit time-varying characteristics, with intensified spillovers typically triggered by economic crises, geopolitical events, policy changes, and other major incidents; (4) geopolitical risks have a significant impact on spillovers within the “carbon-energy-finance” system, though the impact's magnitude and direction vary depending on the specific geopolitical event. These results provide valuable guidance for policymakers and investors in China and other developing countries on the operation and investment of carbon markets.
期刊介绍:
Energy Economics is a field journal that focuses on energy economics and energy finance. It covers various themes including the exploitation, conversion, and use of energy, markets for energy commodities and derivatives, regulation and taxation, forecasting, environment and climate, international trade, development, and monetary policy. The journal welcomes contributions that utilize diverse methods such as experiments, surveys, econometrics, decomposition, simulation models, equilibrium models, optimization models, and analytical models. It publishes a combination of papers employing different methods to explore a wide range of topics. The journal's replication policy encourages the submission of replication studies, wherein researchers reproduce and extend the key results of original studies while explaining any differences. Energy Economics is indexed and abstracted in several databases including Environmental Abstracts, Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Social Sciences Citation Index, GEOBASE, Social & Behavioral Sciences, Journal of Economic Literature, INSPEC, and more.