Unravelling the enigma of wind dynamics in the Minoan eruption of Thera: Exploring the influence of wind patterns during the Late Bronze Age catastrophe

The Minoan volcanic eruption of Thera, one of the most powerful volcanic events in recorded history, profoundly disrupted the Minoan civilization and altered the geopolitical landscape of ancient Eastern Mediterranean societies through widespread tephra deposition. This study investigates the dynamics of prevailing wind systems and their role in shaping the spatial distribution of volcanic ash during the eruption. A geospatial model employing Kriging interpolation was developed within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework to estimate tephra dispersal patterns. The model was based on tephra thickness measurements from published site data and utilized spatial autocorrelation to interpolate deposition across unsampled regions. The results indicate that volcanic material was predominantly transported northeastward via stratospheric wind systems and southward due to northerly and northwesterly tropospheric winds over the Aegean Sea. The seasonal co-occurrence of these wind regimes, particularly during late spring, suggests that the eruption most likely occurred in May. The findings provide new insight into the atmospheric mechanisms of high-magnitude eruptions and their broader environmental and societal implications.