Eun-Ji Kim, Yoonseo Park, Sewon Park, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Munjae Lee
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The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict high BMI-related disease burden up to 2040.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2019, the global burden of disease due to high BMI was 1932.54 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1276.61, 2639.74), representing an increase of 0.18 (95% UI: 0.02, 0.42). Disease burden was consistently higher in males, middle-aged and older populations, particularly noting a narrowing gap between those aged 50-69 years and≥ 70 years in the forecast results until 2040. Additionally, regions with a middle SDI and the North Africa and Middle East WHO super-regions exhibited the highest disease burdens. Also, Cardiovascular disease ranked highest among diseases.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The rising disease burden associated with high BMI highlights the need for targeted health policies focussing on older populations, low and middle-income countries, and major conditions like cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Addressing these trends requires an integrated, equity-focused approach to health planning and management to mitigate global impacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":47637,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Health Planning and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Global Burden of Disease Due to High Body Mass Index and Projections to 2040: A Study Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.\",\"authors\":\"Eun-Ji Kim, Yoonseo Park, Sewon Park, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Munjae Lee\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/hpm.3946\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The prevalence of high body mass index (BMI) contributes to an increased risk of various diseases. This study aimed to identify global disease burden trends associated with high BMI from 1990 to 2019 and forecasts up to 2040.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using data from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 study, we analysed the number and ratio of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to high BMI. The data were analysed by sex, ages, socio-demographic index (SDI), world health organization (WHO) region, and disease level. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict high BMI-related disease burden up to 2040.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2019, the global burden of disease due to high BMI was 1932.54 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1276.61, 2639.74), representing an increase of 0.18 (95% UI: 0.02, 0.42). Disease burden was consistently higher in males, middle-aged and older populations, particularly noting a narrowing gap between those aged 50-69 years and≥ 70 years in the forecast results until 2040. Additionally, regions with a middle SDI and the North Africa and Middle East WHO super-regions exhibited the highest disease burdens. Also, Cardiovascular disease ranked highest among diseases.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The rising disease burden associated with high BMI highlights the need for targeted health policies focussing on older populations, low and middle-income countries, and major conditions like cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Addressing these trends requires an integrated, equity-focused approach to health planning and management to mitigate global impacts.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47637,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Health Planning and Management\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Health Planning and Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1002/hpm.3946\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Health Planning and Management","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/hpm.3946","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Global Burden of Disease Due to High Body Mass Index and Projections to 2040: A Study Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
Background: The prevalence of high body mass index (BMI) contributes to an increased risk of various diseases. This study aimed to identify global disease burden trends associated with high BMI from 1990 to 2019 and forecasts up to 2040.
Methods: Using data from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 study, we analysed the number and ratio of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to high BMI. The data were analysed by sex, ages, socio-demographic index (SDI), world health organization (WHO) region, and disease level. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict high BMI-related disease burden up to 2040.
Results: In 2019, the global burden of disease due to high BMI was 1932.54 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1276.61, 2639.74), representing an increase of 0.18 (95% UI: 0.02, 0.42). Disease burden was consistently higher in males, middle-aged and older populations, particularly noting a narrowing gap between those aged 50-69 years and≥ 70 years in the forecast results until 2040. Additionally, regions with a middle SDI and the North Africa and Middle East WHO super-regions exhibited the highest disease burdens. Also, Cardiovascular disease ranked highest among diseases.
Conclusion: The rising disease burden associated with high BMI highlights the need for targeted health policies focussing on older populations, low and middle-income countries, and major conditions like cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Addressing these trends requires an integrated, equity-focused approach to health planning and management to mitigate global impacts.
期刊介绍：
Policy making and implementation, planning and management are widely recognized as central to effective health systems and services and to better health. Globalization, and the economic circumstances facing groups of countries worldwide, meanwhile present a great challenge for health planning and management. The aim of this quarterly journal is to offer a forum for publications which direct attention to major issues in health policy, planning and management. The intention is to maintain a balance between theory and practice, from a variety of disciplines, fields and perspectives. The Journal is explicitly international and multidisciplinary in scope and appeal: articles about policy, planning and management in countries at various stages of political, social, cultural and economic development are welcomed, as are those directed at the different levels (national, regional, local) of the health sector. Manuscripts are invited from a spectrum of different disciplines e.g., (the social sciences, management and medicine) as long as they advance our knowledge and understanding of the health sector. The Journal is therefore global, and eclectic.
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