Xiaoqiang Zhu, Lei Chen, Xinyue Yang, Yanyan Du, Yangyu Zhao, Tenglong Hu, Na Sun, Qiang Sun, Wenyan Liang, Xiqing Wei, Zhiqiang Zhang
{"title":"1990-2021年全球、区域和国家烟草引起的心血管疾病负担趋势及到2045年的预测：基于《2021年全球疾病负担研究》的综合分析","authors":"Xiaoqiang Zhu, Lei Chen, Xinyue Yang, Yanyan Du, Yangyu Zhao, Tenglong Hu, Na Sun, Qiang Sun, Wenyan Liang, Xiqing Wei, Zhiqiang Zhang","doi":"10.18332/tid/204008","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Tobacco use is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), and its global disease burden trends require further clarification. This study aims to analyze trends in global CVD burden attributable to tobacco in 1990-2021 and project mortality rates and disease burden through 2045.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 data, we analyzed temporal trends using age-period-cohort models, evaluated change points with Joinpoint regression, and conducted forecasting using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2021, tobacco-attributable CVD deaths reached 2.147 million globally (71.3% increase from 1990), although age-standardized mortality rates decreased to 25.36 per 100000 (83.3% reduction). Mortality rates were lowest in high SDI regions (326.71 per 100000) and highest in low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) regions (788.05 per 100000). The proportion of deaths among those aged ≥80 years increased from 19.2% to 26.2%. Global mortality rates decreased by 1.8% annually, with a greater decline in females (-2.6%) than males (-1.6%). Projections suggest that by 2045, global CVD deaths may reach approximately 3.267 million (52.1% potential increase), although age-standardized mortality rates are expected to decrease to around 38.6 per 100000 (15.9% estimated reduction). Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are projected to potentially increase to 75.755 million (39.9% estimated increase), while age-standardized DALY rates could decline to approximately 1008.02 per 100000.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Between 1990 and 2021, global tobacco-attributable CVD mortality rates showed a declining trend, with notable regional, sex, and age disparities. Projections indicate that while age-standardized rates will continue to decrease, absolute numbers of deaths and disease burden will increase. The findings emphasize the need to strengthen tobacco control and CVD prevention in low-middle SDI regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":23202,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Induced Diseases","volume":"23 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12080230/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Global, regional, and national trends in tobacco-induced cardiovascular disease burden for 1990-2021 with projections to 2045: A comprehensive analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.\",\"authors\":\"Xiaoqiang Zhu, Lei Chen, Xinyue Yang, Yanyan Du, Yangyu Zhao, Tenglong Hu, Na Sun, Qiang Sun, Wenyan Liang, Xiqing Wei, Zhiqiang Zhang\",\"doi\":\"10.18332/tid/204008\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Tobacco use is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), and its global disease burden trends require further clarification. This study aims to analyze trends in global CVD burden attributable to tobacco in 1990-2021 and project mortality rates and disease burden through 2045.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 data, we analyzed temporal trends using age-period-cohort models, evaluated change points with Joinpoint regression, and conducted forecasting using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2021, tobacco-attributable CVD deaths reached 2.147 million globally (71.3% increase from 1990), although age-standardized mortality rates decreased to 25.36 per 100000 (83.3% reduction). Mortality rates were lowest in high SDI regions (326.71 per 100000) and highest in low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) regions (788.05 per 100000). The proportion of deaths among those aged ≥80 years increased from 19.2% to 26.2%. Global mortality rates decreased by 1.8% annually, with a greater decline in females (-2.6%) than males (-1.6%). Projections suggest that by 2045, global CVD deaths may reach approximately 3.267 million (52.1% potential increase), although age-standardized mortality rates are expected to decrease to around 38.6 per 100000 (15.9% estimated reduction). Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are projected to potentially increase to 75.755 million (39.9% estimated increase), while age-standardized DALY rates could decline to approximately 1008.02 per 100000.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Between 1990 and 2021, global tobacco-attributable CVD mortality rates showed a declining trend, with notable regional, sex, and age disparities. Projections indicate that while age-standardized rates will continue to decrease, absolute numbers of deaths and disease burden will increase. 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Global, regional, and national trends in tobacco-induced cardiovascular disease burden for 1990-2021 with projections to 2045: A comprehensive analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Introduction: Tobacco use is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), and its global disease burden trends require further clarification. This study aims to analyze trends in global CVD burden attributable to tobacco in 1990-2021 and project mortality rates and disease burden through 2045.
Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 data, we analyzed temporal trends using age-period-cohort models, evaluated change points with Joinpoint regression, and conducted forecasting using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models.
Results: In 2021, tobacco-attributable CVD deaths reached 2.147 million globally (71.3% increase from 1990), although age-standardized mortality rates decreased to 25.36 per 100000 (83.3% reduction). Mortality rates were lowest in high SDI regions (326.71 per 100000) and highest in low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) regions (788.05 per 100000). The proportion of deaths among those aged ≥80 years increased from 19.2% to 26.2%. Global mortality rates decreased by 1.8% annually, with a greater decline in females (-2.6%) than males (-1.6%). Projections suggest that by 2045, global CVD deaths may reach approximately 3.267 million (52.1% potential increase), although age-standardized mortality rates are expected to decrease to around 38.6 per 100000 (15.9% estimated reduction). Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are projected to potentially increase to 75.755 million (39.9% estimated increase), while age-standardized DALY rates could decline to approximately 1008.02 per 100000.
Conclusions: Between 1990 and 2021, global tobacco-attributable CVD mortality rates showed a declining trend, with notable regional, sex, and age disparities. Projections indicate that while age-standardized rates will continue to decrease, absolute numbers of deaths and disease burden will increase. The findings emphasize the need to strengthen tobacco control and CVD prevention in low-middle SDI regions.
期刊介绍：
Tobacco Induced Diseases encompasses all aspects of research related to the prevention and control of tobacco use at a global level. Preventing diseases attributable to tobacco is only one aspect of the journal, whose overall scope is to provide a forum for the publication of research articles that can contribute to reducing the burden of tobacco induced diseases globally. To address this epidemic we believe that there must be an avenue for the publication of research/policy activities on tobacco control initiatives that may be very important at a regional and national level. This approach provides a very important "hands on" service to the tobacco control community at a global scale - as common problems have common solutions. Hence, we see ourselves as "connectors" within this global community.
The journal hence encourages the submission of articles from all medical, biological and psychosocial disciplines, ranging from medical and dental clinicians, through health professionals to basic biomedical and clinical scientists.
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