{"title":"论文题目:全球能源进口的生存与地缘政治风险的影响","authors":"Shiguang Peng , Le Wang , Yongyao Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108595","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on Harmonized System 6-digit code data from 1995 to 2022, this study uses survival analysis to assess the survival of global energy imports, which characterizes resilience. Next, it quantitatively investigates the impact of geopolitical risks in exporting countries on import survival. The key findings are summarized as follows. First, the average length of the 300,971 trade spells is 3.269 years. Remarkably, 80.68 % of these spells have a length that does not exceed 3 years, whereas only 3.98 % persist beyond 18 years in length. Second, the hazard rate of global energy imports reaches 0.573 in the initial year, but it typically decreases as the import duration increases. Compared with other countries, Japan has superior resilience in terms of energy imports, whereas the United States has inferior resilience in this regard. With respect to product categories, global petroleum imports display greater resilience than coal and gas imports do. Third, elevated geopolitical risks in exporting countries significantly increase the hazard rate of global energy imports. Geopolitical risks intensify the hazard rate of global petroleum imports more than that of coal and gas imports. Furthermore, for OECD exporting countries, the enhancing impact of geopolitical risks on the hazard rate of trade disruptions is attenuated. Finally, drawing upon the primary conclusions, policy implications are suggested to increase import resilience and safeguard international energy security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 108595"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Manuscript title: The survival of global energy imports and the impact of geopolitical risks\",\"authors\":\"Shiguang Peng , Le Wang , Yongyao Chen\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108595\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Based on Harmonized System 6-digit code data from 1995 to 2022, this study uses survival analysis to assess the survival of global energy imports, which characterizes resilience. Next, it quantitatively investigates the impact of geopolitical risks in exporting countries on import survival. The key findings are summarized as follows. First, the average length of the 300,971 trade spells is 3.269 years. Remarkably, 80.68 % of these spells have a length that does not exceed 3 years, whereas only 3.98 % persist beyond 18 years in length. Second, the hazard rate of global energy imports reaches 0.573 in the initial year, but it typically decreases as the import duration increases. Compared with other countries, Japan has superior resilience in terms of energy imports, whereas the United States has inferior resilience in this regard. With respect to product categories, global petroleum imports display greater resilience than coal and gas imports do. Third, elevated geopolitical risks in exporting countries significantly increase the hazard rate of global energy imports. Geopolitical risks intensify the hazard rate of global petroleum imports more than that of coal and gas imports. Furthermore, for OECD exporting countries, the enhancing impact of geopolitical risks on the hazard rate of trade disruptions is attenuated. Finally, drawing upon the primary conclusions, policy implications are suggested to increase import resilience and safeguard international energy security.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11665,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Energy Economics\",\"volume\":\"147 \",\"pages\":\"Article 108595\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":13.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Energy Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325004190\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Energy Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325004190","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Manuscript title: The survival of global energy imports and the impact of geopolitical risks
Based on Harmonized System 6-digit code data from 1995 to 2022, this study uses survival analysis to assess the survival of global energy imports, which characterizes resilience. Next, it quantitatively investigates the impact of geopolitical risks in exporting countries on import survival. The key findings are summarized as follows. First, the average length of the 300,971 trade spells is 3.269 years. Remarkably, 80.68 % of these spells have a length that does not exceed 3 years, whereas only 3.98 % persist beyond 18 years in length. Second, the hazard rate of global energy imports reaches 0.573 in the initial year, but it typically decreases as the import duration increases. Compared with other countries, Japan has superior resilience in terms of energy imports, whereas the United States has inferior resilience in this regard. With respect to product categories, global petroleum imports display greater resilience than coal and gas imports do. Third, elevated geopolitical risks in exporting countries significantly increase the hazard rate of global energy imports. Geopolitical risks intensify the hazard rate of global petroleum imports more than that of coal and gas imports. Furthermore, for OECD exporting countries, the enhancing impact of geopolitical risks on the hazard rate of trade disruptions is attenuated. Finally, drawing upon the primary conclusions, policy implications are suggested to increase import resilience and safeguard international energy security.
期刊介绍:
Energy Economics is a field journal that focuses on energy economics and energy finance. It covers various themes including the exploitation, conversion, and use of energy, markets for energy commodities and derivatives, regulation and taxation, forecasting, environment and climate, international trade, development, and monetary policy. The journal welcomes contributions that utilize diverse methods such as experiments, surveys, econometrics, decomposition, simulation models, equilibrium models, optimization models, and analytical models. It publishes a combination of papers employing different methods to explore a wide range of topics. The journal's replication policy encourages the submission of replication studies, wherein researchers reproduce and extend the key results of original studies while explaining any differences. Energy Economics is indexed and abstracted in several databases including Environmental Abstracts, Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Social Sciences Citation Index, GEOBASE, Social & Behavioral Sciences, Journal of Economic Literature, INSPEC, and more.