Transition or not? Assessing competing narratives in South Africa's just energy transition

This paper investigates how and why stakeholders in the just energy transition in South Africa, where coal is the main source of electricity and a major export product, support or oppose a transition. Based on novel primary data collected through interviews with the environmental and labour movements in South Africa, with a special focus in Mpumalanga Province, the paper assesses the different narratives that have emerged about the just energy transition. Using an inductive coding process, the empirical analysis reveals narratives around six key themes that justify or reject just energy transition efforts: (1) climate change; (2) environmental pollution; (3) affected communities and workers; (4) energy crisis; (5) international exports; (6) just transition planning and implementation. A cluster analysis reveals differences between the two movements and within the labour movement and shows that geographical proximity to coal infrastructure matters. The findings from South Africa can inform our understanding on the role of social movements in just energy transitions in the Global South more generally, and the extent to which narratives matter for the support or opposition of an energy transition.