不完全概率信息下温冻黏土热参数的联合概率分布辨识

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI:10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104543

Hao Li , Tao Wang , Yonglin Feng , Jiazeng Cao , Yutong Song , Guoqing Zhou , Weifeng Wan

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引用次数: 0

摘要

温冻黏土的热物性易受温度因素的影响，且现场实测数据数量有限。忽略温度因素和小样本特征因素影响构建的热参数分布模型并不适用于所有情况。因此，本研究对不同温度条件下温冻粘土热参数的实测数据进行了研究。首先，提出了一种基于Copula理论的二元冻土热参数相关结构表征方法。基于实测数据，采用Bootstrap方法模拟小样本的变异性，确定不同温度条件下的最佳拟合边缘分布和Copula函数。其次，基于最优拟合函数构造联合概率分布模型；最后，通过拟合优度检验来评价模型的拟合程度。结果表明，不同温度下温冻黏土的热参数分布特征并不一致。采用Bootstrap方法识别的二元联合分布模型能较好地表征热参数的相关结构

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Identification of joint probability distribution for thermal parameters of warm frozen clay with incomplete probability information

The thermal properties of warm frozen clay are easily affected by temperature factors, and the number of field measured data is limited. The thermal parameter distribution model constructed by ignoring the influence of temperature factors and small sample characteristic factors is not applicable to all situations. Therefore, this study studies the measured data of thermal parameters of warm frozen clay under different temperature conditions. Firstly, a binary frozen soil thermal parameter correlation structure characterization method is proposed based on Copula theory. Based on the measured data, the Bootstrap method is used to simulate the variability of small samples to determine the best fitting edge distribution and Copula function under different temperature conditions. Secondly, a joint probability distribution model is constructed based on the best fitting function. Finally, the fitting degree of the model is evaluated by the goodness of fit test. The results show that the distribution characteristics of thermal parameters of warm frozen clay under different temperatures are not consistent. The bivariate joint distribution model identified by the Bootstrap method can better characterize the correlation structure of thermal parameters

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来源期刊

Cold Regions Science and Technology 工程技术-地球科学综合

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

12.20%

发文量

209

审稿时长

4.9 months

期刊介绍： Cold Regions Science and Technology is an international journal dealing with the science and technical problems of cold environments in both the polar regions and more temperate locations. It includes fundamental aspects of cryospheric sciences which have applications for cold regions problems as well as engineering topics which relate to the cryosphere. Emphasis is given to applied science with broad coverage of the physical and mechanical aspects of ice (including glaciers and sea ice), snow and snow avalanches, ice-water systems, ice-bonded soils and permafrost. Relevant aspects of Earth science, materials science, offshore and river ice engineering are also of primary interest. These include icing of ships and structures as well as trafficability in cold environments. Technological advances for cold regions in research, development, and engineering practice are relevant to the journal. Theoretical papers must include a detailed discussion of the potential application of the theory to address cold regions problems. The journal serves a wide range of specialists, providing a medium for interdisciplinary communication and a convenient source of reference.