巴西人口红利：储蓄作用的空间分析

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science Pub Date : 2025-04-28 DOI:10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100097

Marianne Zwilling Stampe , Gabrielito Rauter Menezes , Fernando Pozzobon , Eduardo Grando Sirtoli

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究调查了储蓄作为2000年至2010年间巴西最小可比地区（MCA）第二次人口红利渠道的作用。利用空间计量模型，研究分析了人均储蓄、教育和劳动力参与率对收入增长的影响。结果表明，除了第一次人口红利（以劳动年龄人口相对于总人口对经济增长的贡献为证据）外，由储蓄和教育驱动的第二次人口红利对区域经济增长也有显著影响。储蓄作为一个内生变量，在减轻人口老龄化的影响和促进可持续发展方面证明是至关重要的。该研究还强调了mca之间的地方空间相互作用的重要性，表明旨在促进储蓄、人力资本形成和生产性包容的公共政策对于最大限度地发挥人口红利的效益至关重要。这些发现为寻求减少巴西地区差异的政策制定者提供了有价值的见解。

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Brazilian demographic dividend: A spatial analysis of the role of savings

This study investigates the role of savings as a channel for the second demographic dividend in minimum comparable areas (MCA) in Brazil between 2000 and 2010. Using spatial econometric models, the research analyzed the effects of per capita savings, education, and labor force participation on income growth. The results reveal that, in addition to the first demographic dividend – evidenced by the contribution of working-age population relative to the total population to economic growth – the second dividend, driven by savings and education, has a significant impact on regional economic growth. Savings, treated as an endogenous variable, proved to be crucial in mitigating the effects of population aging and promoting sustainable development. The study also highlights the importance of local spatial interactions between MCAs, suggesting that public policies aimed at promoting savings, human capital formation, and productive inclusion are essential to maximize the benefits of demographic dividends. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to reduce regional disparities in Brazil.

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来源期刊

Papers in Regional Science Multiple-

CiteScore

4.40

自引率

4.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： Regional Science is the official journal of the Regional Science Association International. It encourages high quality scholarship on a broad range of topics in the field of regional science. These topics include, but are not limited to, behavioral modeling of location, transportation, and migration decisions, land use and urban development, interindustry analysis, environmental and ecological analysis, resource management, urban and regional policy analysis, geographical information systems, and spatial statistics. The journal publishes papers that make a new contribution to the theory, methods and models related to urban and regional (or spatial) matters.